In the early morning phase, Trump mentioned his views on the US dollar in his speech, believing that the dollar is currently performing well and still holds high value, while also stating that China and Japan have been keeping their exchange rates lower.

Trump believes that the dollar's depreciation is not significant, and that the current decline in the dollar is searching for its own balance point. He also expressed confidence in his ability to control the dollar's rise and fall at any time.

From this statement, it can be seen that Trump is supportive of and hopes for the dollar's depreciation, as a weaker dollar helps U.S. exports. If Trump's views represent the current stance of the entire Trump administration, it implies that the U.S. Treasury will not intervene to prevent depreciation, and the Federal Reserve's intervention strength on the dollar is inherently weaker than that of the Treasury. However, we should not ignore the possibility of Powell's verbal interventions and expectations management.

A weaker dollar benefits non-dollar assets, with gold rising 3.43% intraday, an increase of over $170 in a single day, a significant rise, but not entirely positive for risk markets.

Taking U.S. stocks as an example, in a weak dollar environment, if dollar assets cannot generate enough liquidity attraction, they may lose liquidity, leading to spillover of liquidity globally. It depends on whether the sustainability of the U.S. stock AI narrative is strong enough. Additionally, if Powell's hawkish comments suppress rate cut expectations, how risk markets react is also an important issue.

Of course, a weaker dollar is marginally positive for growth stocks and long-duration assets, but it may not be beneficial for financial companies, cyclical-dependent firms, and companies relying on a strong dollar, potentially weakening them.

For crypto assets, whether a weak dollar benefits cryptocurrencies is also not 100% certain. While Bitcoin (BTC) does have positive effects from non-dollar assets, there are still risks associated with emerging high-beta assets. It depends on who BTC's attributes will follow: non-dollar or risk asset characteristics.

A pullback to around 2942-2916 can be used to add positions, and around 2877 for additional purchases. The rebound target can be seen up to around 3015-3060.