Guessing the Bear Market Bottom from Historical Cycles

Based on the retracement depths of previous bull-to-bear cycles, we can estimate as follows: around 2011, the retracement was 94%, which can be ignored as it was very early with limited liquidity and participants. Around 2013, the retracement was 87%. Around 2017, it was 84%. Around 2021, it was 77%. For 2025, the retracement? The retracement appears to be decreasing based on cycle retracement strength, as market consensus becomes stronger and with the addition of institutional investors, mining costs after each halving, and other factors. Currently, we estimate that if this retracement reaches 70%, the price would be around 38,000; if it reaches 60%, around 50,500. I am slightly more optimistic than these figures and stick to my previous estimates of around 63,000 and 52,000.