The boat has already passed ten thousand mountains; in a bear market, shorting should be the main strategy.

Based on the current cycle, we are already in a bear market. According to the timeline, the bear market started in October 2025, which is the day of the 10.11 crash. Let’s estimate the previous Bitcoin bear markets with a simple comparison (as of February 2026):

1️⃣ 2013.12–2015.08 (Early Long Bear)

- Duration: 627 days (≈2 years)

- Peak: $1,200; Bottom: $200

- Decline: 84%

- Bottoming signals: Mt.Gox bankruptcy, regulatory cleanup, trading volume extremely shrinking, sideways consolidation for over 3 months

2️⃣ 2017.12–2018.12 (Mature Cycle Bear)

- Duration: 364 days (≈12 months)

- Peak: $20,000; Bottom: $3,200

- Decline: 84%

- Bottoming signals: Federal Reserve rate hikes, ICO bubble burst, peak of liquidation across the network, long sideways consolidation, miners close to shutdown prices

3️⃣ 2021.11–2022.11 (Institutionalized Bear)

- Duration: 376 days (≈12.5 months)

- Peak: $69,000; Bottom: $15,500

- Decline: 77%

- Bottoming signals: Luna/FTX collapse, aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, institutional deleveraging, trading volume at historic lows, sideways consolidation

4️⃣ 2025.10–Present (Current Bear, Ongoing)

- Duration: About 4 months (as of February 2026)

- Peak: $126,000; Current: ~$63,000

- Decline: ~50% (bottom not confirmed yet)

- Reference cycle: According to historical patterns, the bottom may occur around October 2026 (364-day cycle)

📌 Core Patterns

• Mature cycle major bear market: 12–14 months (364–406 days)

• Early bear markets are even longer: ~2 years

• Decline trend: 84% → 84% → 77% (gradually narrowing)