Zcash is again stalling at this level. Around 240, unable to go up or down, like a person lying flat. Push him a bit, he moves; don’t push, he just collapses.

This kind of movement is the most frustrating.

Looking at the daily chart, MA7 is pressing down at 239, MA25 is still waiting at 305, and MA99 is at 431, which is a distant dream. The price is hovering along the short-term moving averages, while the long-term averages are trending downward—a classic bearish alignment. The MACD DIF and DEA are still below the zero line, at -42.53 and -42.03, just a few tenths apart, stubbornly refusing to form a golden cross.

Rise? All the overhead is trapped longs. Every centimeter pushed up is just unwinding previous positions. Fall? No one is willing to be the first to sell now; everyone’s watching each other, waiting for someone to lose patience.

But this balance won’t last forever.

Consolidation is essentially building momentum, but it can go either up or down. The question is, how much room is there to go up from this level? 30 points? 50 points? And how much room is there to go down? Look at that big red candle from October last year, then check the levels before that—if it breaks down, the path below is wide open.

The odds are simply not balanced.

The market is still looking for reasons to boost confidence. Barry Silbert calls for 500x, Grayscale wants to launch an ETF, Vitalik donates money for cross-chain upgrades. Whether these rumors are true or not, the point is—they’re already priced into the market. If the positive news doesn’t push prices higher, then the bullish momentum has run out.

The community is arguing fiercely. Some hold onto the narrative of privacy coins believing in a future, while others mock the K-line charts from the past few years. No one can convince anyone else; the numbers in the accounts have already made their choice.

Technical charts don’t lie. The 1-hour chart looks okay—MACD’s red bars are turning green, RSI is in the neutral zone, short-term traders might come in for a quick trade. But looking at the daily chart, everyone is cooling off again. The daily downtrend hasn’t even been touched.

This kind of coin, frankly, is just for short-term traders to sharpen their blades. Quick in and out, making a little pocket money is fine, but if you’re aiming for a bigger picture, in the end, all you’re left with is the picture.

I don’t know which direction it will choose. But I do know, the longer it stays sideways at this level, the more brutal the break will be.

Downward? It’s free fall.

Upward? When Bitcoin and Ethereum are not weak, it’s a chance to take a sip. But that sip depends on whether you can grab it before others do.

Consolidation is a gentle trap. Many people aren’t wiped out by a big drop; they get worn down in this grinding market, losing vigilance, becoming hopeful, and finally reluctant to leave.