Market rebound signals emerge: Why are Ethereum ETF holders experiencing far greater loss pressures than Bitcoin?

On February 13, 2026, the cryptocurrency market, after experiencing a deep correction at the beginning of the year, is gradually showing initial signs of bottoming out and rebounding. However, for participants in different spot ETFs, the starting point of this recovery varies greatly. According to the latest report from Bloomberg analysts and on-chain data, Ethereum ETF holders are facing far more severe unrealized losses than Bitcoin ETF holders. This article will analyze the fundamental differences in cost basis, drawdown levels, and market structure between the two major crypto ETF holders based on the latest market data from the Gate platform as of February 13, 2026.

Harsh Contrast

As of February 13, 2026, Gate market data shows:

• Bitcoin (BTC) price at $66,580.7, 24-hour trading volume of $768.22M, market cap of $1.31 trillion, and market share of 55.42%;
• Ethereum (ETH) price at $1,947.19, 24-hour trading volume of $205.33M, market cap of $233.26 billion, and market share of 9.80%.

In terms of price performance, BTC and ETH have respectively rebounded +4.97% and +5.92% over the past 7 days, seemingly in sync. But if we shift our perspective to the cost structure of ETF holders, a completely different story emerges.

Bloomberg intelligence analyst James Seyffart pointed out that the average cost basis for US spot Ethereum ETF investors is approximately $3,500, while the current ETH price has retraced more than 50% from that level. In contrast, Bitcoin ETF investors have an average cost basis of about $84,063. The current BTC price at $66,580.7 is still below the cost line, but the retracement is around 20.8%.

In other words, the unrealized loss depth for Ethereum ETF holders is 2.5 times that of Bitcoin ETF holders. This is not just a numerical difference; it also means ETH needs to rise by 80% to return to the ETF average cost, while BTC only needs about a 26% increase.

The True Scale of Being Trapped, From Asset Size

The shrinking of ETF asset size directly reflects the extent of holder losses. According to SoSoValue data, the total net asset value of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has shrunk from a peak of $170 billion in October 2025 to approximately $85.76 billion now, a decline of about 49.5%. Surprisingly, despite this halving of assets, only about 6% of Bitcoin ETF assets have actually exited during this decline. This indicates that most BTC ETF holders are choosing to hold and have not engaged in large-scale panic selling.

In contrast, Ethereum ETFs have seen their assets drop from a peak of $30.5 billion to $11.27 billion, a decrease of 63%. More concerning is that the net inflow of ETH ETF assets has only decreased by about $3 billion, suggesting that while holders appear to be reluctant to sell, the deeper issue is that ETH ETF liquidity is insufficient and lacks enough new capital entering to support the market.

Currently, the crypto market is in a stock accumulation phase, with capital preferentially flowing into Bitcoin, which has stronger consensus and clearer narratives. Ethereum faces structural challenges such as Layer 2 value capture diversion and weakening upgrade narratives.

Why Is It Harder for ETH ETF Holders to Break Even?

High Cost Basis, Steep Rebound Threshold

As previously mentioned, most Ethereum ETF positions were established between late 2024 and early 2025, when ETH prices hovered between $3,200 and $3,800. Given Gate’s current ETH price of $1,947.19, ETH needs to rise by 79.7% from the current level to reach the cost line.

Gate’s ETH price forecast indicates an average price of $1,936.98 for 2026, with a potential peak of $2,324.37. Even in the most optimistic scenario, there is still a gap of over $1,175 from the $3,500 cost basis. This means most ETH ETF holders are unlikely to break even within 2026.

Capital Flows Show Bearish Characteristics

According to Ecoinometrics statistics, both Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF 30-day rolling net flows have been negative for over 90 days. The difference is that BTC ETF outflows are a mix of profit-taking and panic selling, while ETH ETF outflows are more driven by despair-driven stop-loss exits.

Ethereum ETF faces a double whammy: it cannot attract safe-haven capital like Bitcoin ETF, nor can it replicate the active on-chain narrative from 2023 to 2024. Without new users or protocol revenue growth, ETH’s reputation as a stable store of value is being questioned.

Supply Structure Differences: Infinite Supply vs. Scarcity Consensus

Bitcoin’s supply cap is 21 million coins, with 19.98 million in circulation, reinforcing deflationary expectations and the narrative of digital gold. In contrast, although Ethereum briefly entered a deflationary phase, with network activity cooling, the total supply has returned to 120.69 million ETH with no cap.

The deeper reason why ETH ETFs struggle to attract long-term capital is that its narrative as “digital oil” loses appeal during macro tightening cycles, and its unlimited supply makes it difficult for ETF holders to establish a scarcity belief similar to Bitcoin.

Market Bottomed, But the Rebound Is Highly Uneven

Although the market generally believes that the crypto market is close to a short-term bottom, Gate data shows that both BTC and ETH have rebounded more than 5% from their lows since early February. However, the main driving force of this rebound remains heavily concentrated in Bitcoin.

A key indicator is that Bitcoin’s market share is currently as high as 55.42%, nearly 10 percentage points higher than in 2025. This suggests that even as the market recovers, capital still prioritizes flowing back into Bitcoin rather than Ethereum or other competing chains.

For ETH ETF holders, this is a frustrating reality: when the market rises, ETH lags behind BTC; when it falls, ETH drops much more sharply than BTC. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that even if the scale of the BlackRock IBIT ETF shrinks from a peak of $100 billion to $51 billion, it remains one of the fastest products in ETF history to surpass $60 billion in assets; meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs have yet to demonstrate similar resilience.

Conclusion: ETFs Are Not the Endgame, Narratives Are

As of February 13, 2026, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are $66,580.7 and $1,947.19, respectively. Bitcoin ETF holders are waiting for liquidity inflection points and macro rate shifts, while ETH ETF holders need more patience—not only waiting for the market to recover but also for the Ethereum ecosystem to re-establish its value capture ability.

At Gate, we continue to provide users with real-time, transparent market data and in-depth analysis. Whether in bull or bear markets, understanding the true cost structure and capital flows of assets is key to navigating cycles.