0213 Bitcoin Daily Report#CPI数据将公布

Bitcoin stabilized after falling during the overnight US stock session. However, most bullish traders at Standard Chartered suddenly capitulated, lowering their target price to $50,000. The report states: "We expect further decline in the coming months, with a capitulation-like drop, explicitly citing continued outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and a weakening macroeconomic environment." Standard Chartered lowered its mid-2025 target price from $150,000 to $100,000 for early 2026, and issued a sudden warning that Bitcoin might first dip to $50,000 before stabilizing. This indirectly indicates a lowered target price, and professionals also noted that last week Bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000, over 45% below its October high last year. Multiple rebounds failed to hold, showing that speculative demand is weakening.

On the technical side: Market analysts say that as long as Bitcoin stays above the 200-week moving average near $58,000, there is still room for a rebound to the resistance zone of $73,000 to $75,000. Conversely, if the price continues to break below the critical $60,000 to $58,000 region, it could open the door to further decline into uncharted territory.

Today’s market focus is on Friday’s inflation data. The current market forecast expects core CPI year-over-year to fall by about 2.5% from the previous value. If inflation data unexpectedly rises, it will exert stronger pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

In summary, the current market outlook is roughly: it is neither recovering as quickly as in the mid-stage of a typical bull market nor entering an extreme pressure zone at the end of a bear market.