Polymarket predicts the probability of BTC dropping to $50,000 within the year soaring to 66%. What is the market panicking about?

February 13, 2026, is another day for cryptocurrency market participants that calls for a dose of “calmness.” According to data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the probability that market participants are betting on Bitcoin dropping to $50,000 this year has risen to 66%. This figure not only reflects the prevailing bearish sentiment in the current crypto market but also marks a rapid cooling of expectations for a short-term Bitcoin bull run since the end of 2025.

Pessimism Spreading: From “Rebound” to “Safe Haven”

As of press time on February 13, according to Gate market data, Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is trading around $67,300, down 0.57% over the past 24 hours. Although the price is temporarily hovering near $67,000, the lack of market confidence remains an undeniable fact.

Polymarket’s data acts like a mirror, reflecting investors’ conflicting mindsets. While the probability of BTC falling to $50,000 is as high as 66%, interestingly, the chance of it rebounding to $80,000 within the year is also reported at 68%, with a 52% chance of reaching $90,000. This “fear it won’t come, but fear it will” data pattern reveals that the market is in a highly sensitive zone of bullish and bearish tug-of-war.

Standard Chartered’s “Surrender” Shift: Target Price Cut Significantly

Amid the worsening market sentiment, traditional financial institutions’ changing attitudes have played a role in fueling the decline. Previously regarded as a major bullish force in crypto, Standard Chartered suddenly shifted stance. Global head of digital asset research Geoffrey Kendrick bluntly stated in a report: “We expect further ‘surrender-style declines’ in the coming months.”

Standard Chartered warns that before Bitcoin stabilizes, it may first dip to $50,000. Meanwhile, the bank has sharply lowered its 2026 year-end target for Bitcoin from $150,000 to $100,000. Just a few months ago, their optimistic forecast was as high as $300,000.

This attitude shift is mainly driven by two factors:

1. Continuous outflows from ETF funds: Recent large-scale net outflows from US Bitcoin spot ETFs indicate traditional capital is retreating from risk assets.
2. Deteriorating macro environment: Upcoming US inflation data (CPI) introduces uncertainty. Traders are generally worried that if inflation surprises to the upside, it will reinforce the Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” interest rate policy, further suppressing risk asset valuations.

The Damocles Sword of Macroeconomics

On Friday, February 13, during Asian trading hours, the crypto market stabilized after a decline in the overnight US stock session, but this seems more like a calm before the storm. All eyes are on the upcoming US January inflation data. Recent hot employment figures have already dampened expectations of a Fed rate cut in the short term.

The macroeconomic pressure is not limited to Bitcoin; the entire risk asset market is under stress. Coinbase’s stock price has fallen for three consecutive days, closing Thursday down about 8% at $141, with a year-to-date decline of 37%. The company’s Q4 earnings report showed a loss of $667 million, reflecting the direct impact of falling token prices on trading activity.

On-Chain Data Signals a “Cycle Turning Point”

Beyond macroeconomic negatives, Bitcoin’s on-chain data also signals a potential key turning point similar to historical cycles. CryptoQuant analysts note that while several indicators show the market is in a “mid-term correction,” they have not yet reached the extreme levels typically associated with “durable bottoms.”

Long-term holders’ profit levels have fallen sharply from their October highs and are approaching breakeven. Analysts believe that, based on historical experience, true bear market bottoms often involve long-term holders experiencing losses of 30% to 40%, suggesting the market may still need further “shakeouts” to confirm the bottom.

How to Interpret Polymarket’s “Probability Game”?

It’s important to note that predictions on Polymarket are independent. Each price range (such as dropping to $50,000 or rebounding to $80,000) is a separate “yes or no” market. Therefore, a 66% probability of a drop to $50,000 and a 68% chance of a rebound to $80,000 are not mutually exclusive. This illustrates the current market’s high volatility and divergence—investors see both the possibility of a deep dip this year and a subsequent rebound.

Gate Insights: Support and Risks

From a technical perspective, IG Australia market analyst states that as long as Bitcoin stays above the 200-week moving average near $58,000, there remains a chance for a rebound toward resistance zones around $73,000 to $75,000. However, if the price continues to break below key levels of $60,000 to $58,000, it could open the door to further declines, with the next support possibly around the $40,000 zone.

For traders on the Gate platform, the current environment presents both challenges and opportunities. Discussions about “bottom fishing” versus “stop-loss” are intense. Some believe that since Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will first fall to $50,000 before rising to $100,000, adopting a dollar-cost averaging approach or setting strict stop-losses might be rational strategies to cope with high volatility.

Summary

On February 13, 2026, the 66% bearish forecast on Polymarket is like a cold shower for bulls, but the 68% rebound expectation still keeps a flicker of hope alive. Bitcoin stands at a crossroads near $67,000, facing the headwinds of macroeconomic headwinds on one side and on-chain warning signals on the other.

Whether it drops to $50,000 for a bottom or rebounds above $80,000, the current market reminds us that risk management is always more important than predicting exact levels when trading on Gate. Staying cautious before key data releases may be the best strategy to navigate this “no-man’s land.”