Odaily Planet Daily reports that Stanford Graduate School of Business professor and a16z & Meta advisor Andy Hall posted on X platform stating that his team has developed a new dataset focused on political prediction markets, liquidity, and settlement rules. The research found that the vast majority of political contracts in prediction markets lack activity, with only 1.3% of contracts having sufficient liquidity. Kalshi and Polymarket rarely list contracts with identical rules, leading to further fragmentation of liquidity.
Andy Hall proposed four improvement suggestions: first, list contracts on core issues and collaborate with independent organizations to define markets of social concern; second, pay market makers to inject initial liquidity into political markets; third, introduce AI agents to trade in areas where humans do not participate, generating price references needed by society; fourth, establish unified definitions and settlement rules across platforms. Andy Hall believes these measures will attract traders seeking to hedge political risks and turn prediction markets into the truth machines society needs.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
MrBeast Video Editor Fired From Beast Industries Following Kalshi Insider Trading Probe
Beast Industries fired video editor Artem Kaptur for insider trading, following a Kalshi enforcement action. CEO Jeff Housenbold emphasized the company's zero tolerance for unethical behavior, particularly in prediction markets.
Decrypt4h ago
BlackRock spends $1.28 billion in a week to buy 17,000 Bitcoins! Polymarket predicts BTC will break $75,000 this month
BlackRock has recently accumulated over 17,000 Bitcoins, helping to push the price above $73,000. Market expectations for Bitcoin to return to $75,000 by March have reached 80%. Institutional capital inflows indicate that investors are optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, and overall market sentiment has turned positive.
動區BlockTempo4h ago
Polymarket Trading Volume Analysis Reveals Nearly Half May Be Inauthentic Activity
Gate News bot message, new analysis reveals that nearly 50% of Polymarket's trading volume may be inauthentic. Out of $337 million in daily volume, 28% ($94.7 million) comes from airdrop farmers trading in stagnant markets that remain below 2% or above 98% for over 36 hours to inflate wallet statist
GateNews5h ago
The White House will review the new proposed market measures put forward by the US CFTC
Odaily Planet Daily reports that according to market sources: The White House will review the new proposed market measures put forward by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
GateNews5h ago
An insider wallet suspected to be linked to the US-Iran conflict invested $3,000 to predict that the Iranian regime will fall before March 31.
Odaily Planet Daily reports that according to Lookonchain monitoring, an insider wallet suspected to be related to the US-Iran conflict, after three days of silence, invested $3,000 to predict that the Iranian regime would fall before March 31. The wallet was created on February 28 and had only made two prediction transactions before, both of which were successful, with a profit of $16,000.
GateNews6h ago
Analysis: Bitcoin bullish sentiment heats up, with $80,000 potentially becoming the next target for this rebound.
Bitcoin rose 5.21% on Wednesday, breaking above the upper trendline of the "bearish flag" pattern, with a price of approximately $71,900. Analysts believe that $80,000 could be the next target, and if it does not encounter selling pressure at $74,000, the probability will increase to 40%.
GateNews8h ago
