When AI Takes Over the "Shopping Path," How Much Time Does PayPal Have Left?

Title: AI: PayPal’s $200M Wake-Up Call in AI Commerce
Author: LUKE SPILL, FintechBlueprint
Translation: Peggy, BlockBeats

Author: Rhythm BlockBeats

Source:

Reprint: Mars Finance

Editor’s Note: As AI agents begin to replace humans in product discovery, decision-making, and ordering, the traditional e-commerce funnel is rapidly shrinking. Payments are no longer the endpoint of transactions but are becoming embedded infrastructure. This article uses PayPal’s acquisition of Cymbio as a starting point to explore the emerging competitive landscape driven by Agentic Commerce: Google and Shopify are attempting to control routing layers with UCP; OpenAI and Stripe are vying for the agent execution layer through ACP; while PayPal is shifting focus from a “payment button” to a key node in “business workflows.”

For fintech companies like PayPal and Stripe, embedding AI into underlying protocols will determine whether they can stay at the table; for banks and the crypto industry, the window of opportunity is also fleeting.

Below is the original text:

Last week, PayPal acquired Cymbio, a platform that helps merchants complete sales across multiple AI interfaces, including channels like Microsoft Copilot and Perplexity. Market sources estimate the deal was worth between $150 million and $200 million. It is widely viewed as a strategic move by PayPal to maintain competitiveness in the field of Agentic Commerce.

As AI agents continue to compress and reshape the traditional e-commerce funnel, PayPal is shifting from a typical Web2 payment tool toward upstream, core business functions such as product discovery, catalog distribution, and order orchestration. This shift nearly perfectly confirms our January analysis of exponential growth, power-law effects, and increasing returns in Agentic Commerce.

Meanwhile, foundational infrastructure is rapidly taking shape: Google and Shopify are pushing the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP); OpenAI and Stripe are jointly advancing the Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP); Microsoft is embedding settlement capabilities directly into Copilot.

Infrastructure centered around “machines” rather than “human users” is being rewritten at unprecedented speed. Agentic Commerce is realizing exponential growth in real-world applications. Predictions from various parties are both astonishing and increasingly aligned:

McKinsey forecasts that by the end of this decade, Agentic Commerce could generate $1 trillion in revenue in the U.S. retail market, accounting for about one-third of all online retail sales.

Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2030, Agentic Commerce will drive U.S. e-commerce spending to between $190 billion and $385 billion, representing a market penetration of 10%–20%.

Bain estimates that by 2030, the market size of Agentic Commerce will reach $300 billion to $500 billion, roughly 15%–25% of total online retail.

Existing data indicates we are at an inflection point in exponential growth: as of November 2025, 23% of American consumers have used AI to make at least one purchase.

Cymbio as a “Middle Layer” for PayPal in AI Commerce

For PayPal, Cymbio’s potential positioning is as an intermediary infrastructure layer within the AI commerce ecosystem. Its core value propositions include:

• Synchronizing product catalogs across different markets and channels
• Managing inventory availability in real-time
• Routing orders to merchants’ existing OMS (Order Management Systems) and fulfillment systems
• Allowing merchants to remain the legal entity of record (Merchant of Record)

Among these, Store Sync enables merchants’ product catalogs to be directly discoverable by AI agents like Microsoft Copilot and Perplexity, with plans to integrate ChatGPT and Google Gemini next. The ability for AI agents to complete transactions depends on: product data, pricing, inventory, and fulfillment information being machine-readable and highly reliable.

From “Checkout” to “Agentic Commerce Workflow”

PayPal processes over $1.7 trillion annually, with more than 142 million active accounts. Traditionally, PayPal’s core leverage point is at the moment of payment.

In the Agentic Commerce system, AI can handle product discovery, compare options, and even place orders directly, while PayPal manages identity verification and payment authorization.

After integrating Cymbio, PayPal covers the entire chain:

• Discovery: Products recommended and presented within AI agents
• Decisioning: Converging options through conversational interactions
• Checkout: PayPal handles identity verification and payment
• Fulfillment: Orders are directly injected into merchant systems for execution

Protocol Competition: Service vs. Standard

As PayPal promotes Agentic Commerce through “products and services,” Google and Shopify are building a cross-functional, standardized Agentic Commerce protocol system.

Key points include:

• Google is embedding UCP (Universal Commerce Protocol) directly into Search and Gemini
• Shopify ensures its millions of merchants only need to integrate once to reach multiple AI agents

This means the infrastructure underpinning AI commerce is evolving from “single-point capabilities” to a “protocol network.”

UCP aims to control the “routing layer” of AI commerce, not to own or operate the commerce itself. It’s more of a defensive layout: by making this layer a “free” public protocol and leveraging strong network effects, it prevents any single player from monopolizing the core control of AI commerce.

Therefore, PayPal is not directly competing with UCP but actively embedding into this ecosystem. Google has explicitly stated that UCP-based checkout capabilities will support multiple payment providers, including PayPal and Google Pay.

In other words, UCP seeks to be a “neutral highway,” while PayPal aims to be an essential toll booth and payment node on that highway.

OpenAI and Stripe are major competitors in this space. As early as September, Stripe and OpenAI announced the launch of Instant Checkout within ChatGPT, supported by the Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP).

ACP allows AI agents to initiate purchase requests via structured APIs and Stripe to issue shared payment tokens, enabling payment confirmation under agent authorization. This allows AI, once authorized, to complete the entire transaction process from ordering to payment on behalf of users.

Stripe later launched the Agentic Commerce Suite in December 2025, enabling merchants to:

• Publish product catalogs accessible directly by AI agents
• Choose which AI agents to sell through
• Handle payments, risk management, and disputes via Stripe
• Feed order events back into existing business systems

In 2024, Stripe processed over $1 trillion in payments, serving millions of businesses worldwide. Its strategic goal is clear: to become the “default wallet” and “action layer” for AI agents—similar to how it became the default payment API for internet companies in the past.

Against this backdrop, PayPal and Stripe are clearly in direct competition: they are fighting not just over payments but over the critical control points when AI agents “execute” transactions.

Comparison of the Three Systems (Comparing the three systems together)

(Here, a typical comparison would involve UCP / ACP / PayPal + Cymbio: who controls the routing layer, who controls protocols, who controls payments and fulfillment—along with the sources of their network effects.)

If you like, I can help you turn the next section into a comparison table or a high-level strategic overview, clarifying the division of roles and the game between these players.

Key Takeaways:

Three points stand out:

1. Business actions will become conversational, and AI will be able to execute purchases on behalf of users, no longer requiring step-by-step clicks but understanding needs through dialogue and acting under authorization.
2. Merchants can “integrate once, distribute everywhere”: a single integration allows products to reach users via multiple AI agents and channels.
3. Payments will become embedded infrastructure, no longer the “final step button,” but a foundational capability woven into discovery, decision-making, and fulfillment processes.

Preemptive Moves by Payment Networks

By the way, Mastercard announced in January 2026 that it is researching “AI Business Rules,” essentially trying to get ahead in defining governance frameworks for this transition. Payment networks recognize that before AI agents handle large-scale transactions, the rules and standards will determine future positioning.

As we pointed out in our January analysis, banks, fintechs, and crypto industries must ensure they are “at the table,” not just included afterward.

If financial institutions fail to embed themselves into these platforms early, their functions could ultimately be internalized by Big Tech.

Different Camp Situations and Choices

For Banks (For Banks)

Traditional banks lack the technical infrastructure to directly compete with Google, OpenAI, or Microsoft at the Agentic Commerce layer. However, they still control three critical resources: payment clearing channels, customer credit relationships, and compliance/regulatory expertise.

These assets mean banks will not disappear but must reposition themselves.

For Fintechs (For Fintechs)

Companies like PayPal, Stripe, and Adyen realized early that merely doing payments is no longer enough to secure long-term dominance.

They are proactively moving upstream into areas like commerce orchestration, merchant services, and foundational infrastructure for the AI era.

For Crypto (For Crypto)

So far, the Agentic Commerce protocol systems announced are almost entirely based on traditional financial pathways: credit cards, Google Pay, PayPal, Stripe, etc.

Cryptocurrencies and stablecoins are largely absent from UCP, ACP, and Store Sync, except for some sporadic experiments involving Stripe or Coinbase.

Is this a major strategic oversight or an intentional exclusion? That remains to be seen.

For crypto companies, the opportunity window is clear: if they can build native payment tracks optimized for AI agents (instant settlement, programmable currencies, global reach) and embed into protocols before they are fully solidified, they could leapfrog traditional finance; otherwise, they risk being permanently excluded from the ecosystem.

Conclusion

Fundamentally, PayPal is working to catch up with Stripe and adapt to rapidly changing consumer behaviors. As more people complete daily decisions within AI platforms, these platforms will increasingly serve as the “default virtual storefronts” for brands.

Who can embed the infrastructure behind these storefronts will stay at the table.

PayPal’s stock has been underperforming for some time, down about 37% from its 52-week high. Investors are questioning whether the company still has long-term structural relevance, and the rise of Crypto + AI narratives has only intensified these concerns.

In this context, the diversified strategies around Agentic Commerce are less offensive moves and more “necessary costs” to maintain relevance. For PayPal, this isn’t just an add-on but a required entry fee: only by completing this shift can it continue to be a core part of next-generation business infrastructure.