Willy Woo on Bitcoin's 2025 Rally: Bullish Near-Term but Macro Concerns Loom

Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo has laid out a nuanced market outlook, expressing optimism about Bitcoin’s near-term prospects through February while maintaining a cautious stance on the longer-term 2026 trajectory. His analysis, grounded in proprietary fund flow metrics, reveals a more complex picture than simple price predictions.

The Fund Flow Model: Bitcoin’s December Bottom and Recovery Pattern

Willy Woo’s internal investor fund flow model points to December 24 as a pivotal bottom, with Bitcoin building steady strength in the weeks that followed. According to his framework, such signals typically manifest in price action within 2-3 weeks—a pattern currently unfolding, though near-term overbought technical indicators are tempering gains. At current levels around $68.73K, the market faces critical resistance barriers at $98,000-$100,000. Should Bitcoin breach these levels and push toward its ATH of $126.08K, the psychological and technical implications would be significant for the broader rally thesis.

Liquidity Dynamics: Why Cash Flows Matter

A particularly telling factor in Willy Woo’s analysis is the recovery of cash liquidity in futures markets after months of depletion. He draws a parallel to mid-2021, when similar liquidity conditions preceded the final peak of the previous cycle. This revival of participation suggests underlying demand strength. However, liquidity alone doesn’t guarantee sustained momentum—proper support levels must hold.

The 2026 Outlook: What Would Change Willy Woo’s Bearish View

Despite near-term optimism, Willy Woo maintains a bearish posture for 2026, citing macro-level concerns. His reasoning centers on weakening liquidity relative to price momentum since January 2025—a structural divergence that places markets in vulnerable territory. The current environment resembles the final stage of a cycle, where price gains lack adequate liquidity backing.

Crucially, Willy Woo emphasizes that a bear market hasn’t yet been confirmed. Such confirmation would require sustained Bitcoin fund outflows—a lagging but telling cycle indicator. His view could pivot bullish only if substantial spot (long-term) liquidity flows into markets over the coming months, breaking the established downtrend. Until then, careful monitoring of fund flows remains essential for assessing whether Bitcoin’s 2025 strength can carry through to 2026.