Wheat Futures Display Fractionally Mixed Trends in Ongoing Market Adjustments

The wheat market opened this week showing divergent trading patterns across major contracts, reflecting a complex interplay of domestic and international forces. While soft wheat varieties posted modest gains, harder wheat contracts faced sustained selling pressure, creating a fractionally mixed environment that traders must navigate carefully.

Chicago and Kansas City Contracts Post Fractional Losses

The trading landscape remained uneven with notable weakness visible across multiple wheat futures venues. Chicago soft red winter (SRW) contracts retreated 6 to 7 cents on the front months, while bullish positioning increased with open interest climbing 695 contracts. The Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) market experienced steeper declines, with front-month contracts giving back 10 to 11 cents. Open interest there fell notably by 7,313 contracts, with the March contract accounting for the majority of liquidation activity. Minneapolis spring wheat also faced headwinds, closing approximately 5 to 6 cents lower for the session.

Export Shipments Show Robust Year-over-Year Growth Despite Weekly Softness

Recent export inspection data reveals a more positive underlying trend despite near-term price weakness. The weekly export report showed 351,001 metric tons (12.9 million bushels) of wheat shipped during late January, representing a 11.76% decline from the previous week but crucially maintaining strength with a 27.56% advantage compared to the same period last year. Geographic diversification remained solid, with South Korea absorbing the largest share at 119,036 MT, followed by Japan with 73,230 MT, and Mexico receiving 63,773 MT. The marketing year cumulative has now reached 16.33 MMT (600.05 million bushels), reflecting an 18.21% increase above the prior year’s comparable period—a mixed picture showing near-term volume softness masked by impressive year-to-date acceleration.

The USDA’s export sales data reinforced this dual narrative, indicating 21.03 MMT in wheat commitments through mid-January, representing an 18% year-over-year advantage. This commitment level corresponds to approximately 86% of the USDA target, matching the long-term average sales pace and suggesting sustained international demand despite fractional price volatility.

March and May Contracts Navigate Fractional Price Adjustments

CBOT March Wheat closed at $5.22 1/2, fractionally down 7 cents from the prior settlement, with Tuesday showing modest 1/2 cent recovery.

CBOT May Wheat settled at $5.32 3/4, retreating 6 1/4 cents, currently fractionally higher by 1/2 cent as the session progresses.

KCBT March Wheat ended at $5.29 3/4, posting an 11-cent loss with slight additional weakness of 1/2 cent during Tuesday morning trade.

KCBT May Wheat closed at $5.40 1/2, down 10 cents, currently fractionally lower by 1/2 cent.

MIAX March Wheat settled at $5.70 3/4, declining 5 1/4 cents with 3/4 cent of additional losses.

MIAX May Wheat finished at $5.82 1/2, retreating 5 1/4 cents with 1 cent of additional downside.

Market Summary

Tuesday’s wheat market exemplifies the fractionally mixed conditions currently prevailing across the complex. Export strength on a year-to-date basis contrasts with near-term selling pressure, creating the divergent price action visible across Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis venues. Traders face a nuanced environment where strong fundamental export demand battles against near-term technical weakness, resulting in the fractional movements and mixed sentiment characteristic of consolidation phases.