Polymarket rushes to issue tokens to generate revenue data? Sports markets open for charging fees, aiming to become the new "money printer" in Web3

Author: Frank, PANews

On February 18, 2026, Polymarket announced that starting from this day, the platform will pilot a market order fee in its sports markets. The first wave covers NCAA college basketball and Serie A matches, with plans to gradually expand to all sports events.

Previously, Polymarket’s recent weekly revenue exceeded $1.08 million solely from fees on 15-minute cryptocurrency price fluctuation markets. On-chain data shows that sports markets account for nearly 40% of the platform’s total trading activity. If annualized, the revenue from crypto markets alone could contribute approximately $56 million per year. As the larger sports markets begin to charge fees, Polymarket may become the biggest money-printing machine in the crypto space.

PANews conducted an in-depth analysis of Polymarket’s fee mechanism, revenue model, competitive landscape, and token airdrop expectations.

From “Zero Revenue” to Weekly Million-Dollar Income, the $9 Billion Giant Urgently Starts Making Money

For a long time, Polymarket operated with almost “zero income,” with most markets not charging any trading fees. This free model fueled remarkable growth: in 2025, total trading volume reached $21.5 billion, nearly half of the global prediction market total of $44 billion; in January 2026 alone, monthly trading volume hit a record-breaking $12 billion.

However, as the platform prepares for a token listing this year, the zero-income model clearly no longer matches its valuation. In a recent funding round, its valuation reached $9 billion. In October 2025, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of NYSE, invested up to $2 billion into Polymarket. According to PM Insights, as of January 19, 2026, Polymarket’s implied secondary market valuation climbed to $11.6 billion, up nearly 29% from the previous funding round. There are reports that subsequent funding rounds could value the platform between $12 billion and $15 billion. Such a high valuation requires corresponding revenue to support it.

The turning point came in January 2026, when it became clear that Polymarket was eager to monetize.

In January, Polymarket officially introduced a “Taker Fee” (market order fee) for its high-frequency trading product, the 15-minute crypto price fluctuation markets, with rates up to 3%. The results were immediate: by early February 2026, weekly fee income surpassed $1.08 million, with one week in January generating $787,000 from just the 15-minute markets, accounting for 28.4% of the platform’s total prediction market fee revenue of $2.7 million during that period. To date, Polymarket has generated over $4.7 million in fees, ranking among the top revenue-generating platforms.

The 0.45% Fee: A Sophisticated Design, a Fee Model That’s More Than Just About Making Money

The fee introduced in the sports markets is part of a carefully designed dynamic fee model.

According to Polymarket’s official documentation and community analysis, fees are only charged on market orders (Takers). Limit orders (Makers) are free and even receive a 25% rebate on Taker fees. Similar to crypto fee models, the rate is not fixed but fluctuates with the implied probability of the event:

Simply put, the less certain the market, the higher the fee. At 50% probability, the fee peaks at 0.44%, while at 10% or 90% probabilities, it drops to just 0.13%-0.16%.

However, overall, the fee standard for sports markets remains much lower than that of crypto markets. This does not diminish the revenue potential of sports markets.

Data shows that currently, sports markets account for 39% of Polymarket’s total trading activity, surpassing political markets (20%) and crypto markets (28%). More importantly, previous PANews analysis indicated that the average trading volume of short-term sports markets on Polymarket ($1.32 million) is 30 times that of short-term crypto markets ($44,000). This suggests that if sports markets are fully monetized, revenue could see enormous growth.

For example, during the 2026 Super Bowl, Polymarket’s total trading volume related to the event reached approximately $795 million, covering markets on game outcome, player performance, halftime show predictions, and more. Weekly prediction markets related to the Super Bowl once surged past $6.3 billion in trading volume driven by the event.

Based on existing data, PANews constructed three profit forecast scenarios (assuming an average effective fee rate of 0.25% for sports markets, considering probability distributions and free limit orders):

Even with the most conservative estimates, full fee implementation could generate annual revenue exceeding $200 million, enough to make Polymarket one of the highest-earning protocols in Web3.

While surpassing the interest income from Tether bonds or Ethereum’s gas fees is unlikely, at the application layer, Polymarket has the potential to become the “most profitable dApp.” Especially considering its user retention rate of 85%, far above typical DeFi protocols, this high stickiness indicates higher quality revenue.

POLY Token and Airdrops: A “Fortune Feast” Worth Hundreds of Millions of Dollars?

Polymarket’s high valuation and large user base make its token airdrop one of the most anticipated events of 2026.

Polymarket’s Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber has explicitly stated: “There will be tokens, there will be airdrops.” Market predictions suggest a 62%-70% probability that Polymarket will issue tokens before December 31, 2026. Considering the pace of US business reactivation, the Token Generation Event (TGE) is likely to occur mid-2026.

On February 4, 2026, its parent company Blockratize Inc. applied for trademarks “POLY” and “$POLY,” which is also seen as a key milestone for the TGE. Based on industry norms, trademark registration to TGE typically takes 3-6 months.

The scale of the airdrop could surpass Hyperliquid, ending the era of “volume farming”

Referring to recent top projects (Arbitrum, Jupiter, Hyperliquid), community allocations usually account for 5%-15% of the total supply. PANews estimated based on different valuation assumptions:

If the total airdrop amount reaches $1.4 billion, with approximately 500,000 active eligible addresses, the average airdrop per account could be about $2,800. However, following the 80/20 rule, top users might receive hundreds of thousands or even over a million dollars, while ordinary retail users should manage expectations accordingly.

A particularly noteworthy point is that, alongside fee implementation, Polymarket has introduced a 4% annualized holding reward, distributed via hourly snapshots and daily payouts. This mechanism reveals the project’s clear preference: capital retention is far more important than trading frequency.

Moat and Risks: Where Are the Dangers of This “Money Printer”?

Charging fees means users incur additional costs. So, what justifies Polymarket’s ability to collect them?

Three clear moats are evident: first, the platform boasts unmatched liquidity depth in prediction markets, crucial for large-volume traders; second, compared to traditional betting with 5%-10% rake or Kalshi’s 1%-3.5%, the peak fee rate of 0.45% still offers a significant cost advantage; third, ICE’s involvement not only provides capital but also data distribution capabilities—ICE plans to integrate Polymarket’s real-time prediction data into global institutional clients, creating a “second growth curve” beyond trading fees.

However, risks are also present:

Trading volume volatility: Polymarket’s monthly trading volume once peaked at $1.026 billion in November 2025, then fell to $543 million in December. Will fees accelerate this decline? Yet, positive effects from the introduction of Maker rebates—such as increased order book depth and narrower spreads—may boost long-term trading volume.

Competitive landscape: Kalshi has an early lead in the US compliant market (2025 revenue about $260 million), Hyperliquid is attempting to enter the prediction market with “Outcome Trading” (FDV around $16 billion), and Predict.fun attracts users with DeFi yield stacking.

Regulatory uncertainty: Despite obtaining a CFTC No-Action Letter and acquiring the compliant exchange QCX, the evolving US regulatory environment remains a Damocles sword hanging over prediction markets.

Postscript

From free to paid, from crypto price fluctuation markets to global sports events, Polymarket is executing a carefully planned business model upgrade. Earning millions weekly from crypto markets alone, and with sports markets—covering nearly 40% of platform volume and with liquidity 30 times that of crypto markets—fees are just beginning. Polymarket’s story offers a thought-provoking model: the true value of a platform may not lie in how much it earns now, but in its ability to demonstrate the confidence to “charge whenever it wants.” When the cake is big enough and the moat deep enough, opening the fee gates is only a matter of time.

And this “money printer” that is warming up, February 18 only marked the start button.