As spot trading volume continues to contract, leverage has become the main driver of short-term volatility. In the absence of "structural buying" (long-term funds capable of absorbing selling pressure), the market will experience sharp surges and drops on both the bullish and bearish sides. From a technical perspective, BTC has found support near its 200-week moving average, which historically has often been the bottom of a bear market.

Until clear signals reappear at the macro level, every rebound will be seen as an opportunity to de-risk rather than a reason to chase gains. For cryptocurrencies, returning to an upward trajectory still largely depends on macro clarity. The 200-week moving average remains supportive, and the market has not shown signs of structural damage, meaning that once macro uncertainties subside, the pace of recovery could be faster than current sentiment suggests. In the short term, we are in a range-bound, slightly downward state; the order book is dominated by leverage, and $70,000 remains an important near-term resistance level. #比特币跌幅逼近历史极值