Livestock Futures Navigate Back and Forth Territory as Mixed Signals Cloud the Week

Cattle contracts delivered a back and forth performance on Thursday, with live cattle futures sliding $1.10 to $1.50 across most contract months as traders absorbed a mixed collection of supply and demand signals. The broader market pattern reflected the cautious bidding behavior characterizing this week’s sessions, with open interest expanding by 820 contracts during Thursday’s session alone.

Trading Action Reflects Cautious Back and Forth Movement in Live Cattle

The cash market remains in a holding pattern, anchored around the $232 level as the Fed Cattle Exchange online platform registered bids ranging from $232 to $233.50 on the offering of 1,510 head—though no transactions materialized at these price levels. This lack of cash settlement underscores the back and forth hesitation between buyers and sellers as the week progressed. Feeder cattle contracts showed steeper declines, ranging from 72 cents to $1.10 lower across the board, with the expiring January contract bucking the trend to settle $1.07 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index rebounded $2.70 to $366.69, providing a modest counterpoint to weakness elsewhere in the complex.

Supply Considerations and Emerging Health Challenges Weigh on Market

Attention turned toward upcoming USDA data as traders prepared for the release of the annual Cattle Inventory report. Market participants anticipated incremental shifts in the herd structure, projecting total cattle and calves down 0.3% year-over-year, while beef cow numbers appeared positioned for a modest 0.4% increase alongside replacement heifer growth of 1.7%. Meanwhile, health concerns emerged from the southern border as APHIS updated its tracking of new world screwworm cases, documenting 4 additional cases in Tamaulipas and 1 new case in San Luis Potosi, bringing active case totals in those Mexican states to 13—a development that could influence cross-border trade dynamics.

Export Momentum Faces Headwinds in Beef Complex Despite Strong Weekly Sales

Export activity painted a more encouraging picture in the beef sector, with sales data revealing 16,893 MT of beef sold during the week of January 22—the largest volume since November. South Korea emerged as the dominant buyer, securing 7,600 MT, while Japan purchased 4,900 MT. Actual shipments told a different story, however, with beef exports declining to 12,574 MT for the same week. Among destinations, South Korea received 3,800 MT while Japan took in 3,600 MT. November census data exposed underlying structural challenges, showing beef exports on a carcass basis hitting 190.4 million pounds—the weakest reading since 2009. Imports revealed pressure as well, declining 1.2% year-over-year to 151,316 MT on a tonnage basis, reflecting the back and forth dynamics rippling through the global beef complex.

Boxed Beef Prices Decline as Slaughter Data Signals Softer Demand

Wholesale boxed beef quotes softened during Thursday afternoon’s quotation session, with Choice boxes retreating $2.08 to $367.66 and Select dropping $2.85 to $360.72, widening the Choice/Select spread to $6.94. Federal cattle slaughter estimates for Wednesday came in at 112,000 head, with the weekly total reaching 436,000 head—representing a 11,000 head shortfall from the prior week and 47,143 head below the corresponding week in the previous year. These slaughter metrics reinforce questions about sustained demand strength through the remainder of the reporting cycle.

Contract Settlements: Where the Week Stood

February Live Cattle futures closed at $235.500, off $1.325, with April settling at $237.275 down $1.450 and June finishing at $233.275 lower by $1.175. On the feeder side, January contracts reversed course to settle at $369.175, up $1.075, while March declined $0.725 to $365.125 and April fell $1.075 to $363.225. These back and forth closing patterns underscore the competing pressures—supportive supply concerns battling cautious demand signals—that defined the week’s trading narrative.