K33: Bitcoin enters the "late bear market zone," market signals are similar to the bottom at the end of 2022

According to Mars Finance, market sources indicate that research and brokerage firm K33 states that the current Bitcoin market structure, derivatives positions, and ETF capital flows are highly similar to those in the late stages of the 2022 bear market, suggesting a potential prolonged consolidation rather than a quick rebound. K33 research director Vetle Lunde said that their proprietary indicators show “stunning similarities” between the current situation and September and November 2022 (near the bear market bottom). However, historical experience shows that market bottoms are often followed by long periods of consolidation, with an average 90-day return of only about 3% in similar environments. Data shows that Bitcoin has fallen nearly 28% since January, funding rates have been negative for 11 consecutive days, open interest has dropped below 260,000 BTC, and long positions are being closed. Spot trading volume has decreased 59% week-over-week, and futures open interest has fallen to a four-month low. On the institutional side, CME traders are relatively inactive, with Bitcoin ETP holdings down 103,113 BTC from last October’s peak, but 93% of peak exposure remains, indicating institutions are mainly reducing exposure rather than fully exiting. The fear and greed index recently hit a historic low of 5, but Lunde pointed out that the average 90-day return following extreme fear is only 2.4%, far below the 95% during extreme greed, suggesting that fear alone is not a reliable indicator of a strong rebound. He expects Bitcoin to consolidate in a range between $60,000 and $75,000 for an extended period, with current entry points attractive but requiring patience.