Robusta Coffee Facing Sustained Pressure as Global Supply Surges Challenge Price Recovery

Coffee markets, particularly robusta varieties traded through ICE, are experiencing significant headwinds from abundant global supplies. March robusta futures declined 67 basis points (-1.75%) on Friday, extending a week-long pullback that sent prices to five-month lows. The underlying driver remains consistent: producers worldwide are ramping up output, flooding markets with inventory just as demand faces seasonal softness.

Vietnam’s Export Boom Weighs on Robusta Prices

The world’s largest robusta producer continues to accelerate shipments. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that January coffee exports surged 38.3% year-over-year to 198,000 metric tons, with 2025 calendar-year exports climbing 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Looking ahead, Vietnam’s 2025/26 production is projected to reach 1.76 million metric tons—a four-year peak—representing a 6% year-over-year increase.

This production expansion comes at a critical juncture for robusta pricing. When the world’s dominant supplier increases output while global demand remains flat, upward pressure on supplies naturally weighs on prices. Barchart’s commodity analysis team has highlighted how rapid export acceleration from Southeast Asia typically correlates with extended downside moves in robusta futures.

Brazil’s Production Gains Offset Weather Relief

Brazil’s situation presents a more mixed picture. While recent rainfall in the country’s arabica heartland—Minas Gerais—eased drought concerns, Brazil’s crop agency Conab announced that the country’s 2026 coffee production will surge 17.2% year-over-year to a record 66.2 million bags. Arabica output alone is forecast to jump 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, while robusta production will climb 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.

Despite these bullish supply figures, Brazil’s January coffee exports actually declined 42.4% year-over-year to 141,000 metric tons. This temporary export slowdown offers limited relief to coffee prices, as it likely reflects shipping logistics rather than demand strength.

ICE Warehouse Recovery Signals Ample Availability

Inventory dynamics at the ICE exchange reinforce the abundant-supply narrative. Arabica stockpiles—which had fallen to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags in late November—recovered to a three-month high of 461,829 bags by early January. Similarly, robusta lots tumbled to a 13-month nadir of 4,012 units in December but have since rebounded to 4,662 lots. These inventory improvements indicate sufficient availability to meet near-term demand without any supply disruptions, removing a potential bullish catalyst for prices.

Long-Term Production Outlook Remains Challenging

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service painted an even more expansive picture in its December assessment. Global coffee production for 2025/26 is projected to increase 2.0% year-over-year to a record 178.848 million bags. Robusta production specifically is expected to surge 10.9% to 83.333 million bags, while arabica faces a headwind with a projected 4.7% decline to 95.515 million bags.

According to the FAS, ending stocks for the 2025/26 season will fall only 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags previously—levels that remain comfortable by historical standards. Barchart’s ongoing analysis of USDA data underscores how record-high supplies relative to modest demand growth will likely keep downside pressure on robusta and broader coffee complex prices intact throughout the coming months.

The confluence of surging producer output, rising exports from Vietnam, improving Brazilian harvests, and rebuilt warehouse inventories creates a structural headwind for prices that technical bounces are unlikely to overcome without a significant demand catalyst.