#美国CLARITY法案推进 The U.S. "Clarity Act" Makes Significant Progress, Approval Likelihood Reaches 90%

Finally, there is hope for the Clarity Act. This Thursday, during the third White House discussion on the Clarity Act, White House crypto policy advisor Patrick Witt presented a draft text as a basis for discussion: explicitly supporting limited-stakes stablecoin rewards, but prohibiting simple holding to earn interest-like returns. Allowed rewards are only linked to specific transactions or activities (transaction/activity-based rewards, such as lending or other clearly defined activities).
This is likely a compromise to pressure banks: allowing the crypto sector to retain some reward space while protecting bank deposit services.
The draft also includes anti-avoidance clauses, authorizing the SEC, Treasury, and CFTC to enforce bans, with violations punishable by fines of up to $500,000 per day.
Idle balances are out, but activity-based rewards still have room. The compromise terms presented by the White House also show a strong push: balancing the needs of banks to retain deposits and considering the Cb’s desire to retain the ability to pay interest to users (of course, with some concessions). At this point, further strong opposition from the Cb and banking industry would be hard to justify. The next step will likely involve further discussions among all parties on the relevant detailed provisions.

Representatives from the crypto industry, including Cb, Ripple, a16z, and others, attended the meeting. Several parties described the discussion as "highly cooperative," with only a few issues remaining to be resolved.
Sources familiar with the matter say that the banking side, represented by the association, is still internally debating whether to accept the limited reward plan. If the banking industry agrees, the restricted stablecoin rewards will be incorporated into the next draft of the U.S. Senate's Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.
Currently, the bill still needs to address demands from Democrats to strengthen DeFi regulation, ban high-ranking government officials from directly participating in the crypto industry, and fill vacancies at the CFTC and SEC.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse estimates a 90% probability, with market probabilities on Polymarket/Kalshi jumping from 56-60% a few days ago to 86-90%.

Cb CEO Armstrong stated after the meeting: "Most people underestimate the potential market size of cryptocurrencies." Cryptocurrencies are revolutionizing the entire financial system, from trading and payments to lending. Trillions of dollars in revenue are within reach.
This should be a positive step forward for money.
The White House's deadline is March 1. If an agreement is reached by the end of the month, the Clarity Act could be rapidly advanced, becoming a significant victory for the Trump administration's crypto agenda and further reducing regulatory uncertainty in the industry.
If a balanced compliance plan can be achieved before March 1, it will serve as a major catalyst for institutional confidence, clearing the way for large capital inflows. Conversely, if negotiations break down again, the entire stablecoin ecosystem and digital asset market could face long-term policy shadows and intense volatility.

This deadline has become the most important macro watershed in the first half of 2026, directly shaping the underlying logic of the U.S. crypto world in the coming years.