#贵金原油价格飙升

Regarding the third issue, what is the future of US-Iran relations? How will it impact the market?

1. Situation Forecast: I believe the probability of a full-scale war breaking out remains low, but the risks of “normalization of low-intensity conflicts” and “intermittent restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz” are very high. This means oil prices could stay high for a long time, and inflation expectations may rise again.
2. Impact on Gold and Oil: If conflicts become normalized, gold will be more than just a safe haven; it will be a hard currency against inflation. Crude oil will experience sharp fluctuations at high levels, suitable for swing traders.
3. Impact on the Crypto Market (led by BTC): This is the most interesting part.
· Short-term (loss of safe-haven properties): This event proves that in the face of sudden liquidity crises, BTC is still sold off as a risk asset rather than “digital gold.” Its correlation with Nasdaq is much higher than with gold. Therefore, if US stocks decline due to stagflation concerns triggered by oil prices, BTC will remain under pressure in the short term.
· Medium-term (liquidity turning point): If oil prices stay high for a long time, it will intensify inflation, and the Fed’s rate cut expectations may be delayed again, which is bearish for the crypto market.
· Long-term (mirror of fiat trust): But if geopolitical conflicts lead to depreciation expectations for certain fiat currencies (such as those in severely affected regions), the demand for decentralized, borderless assets will re-emerge. This requires time to ferment and is not a short-term logic.