🔺 74,000 didn't hold, now it's the final exam for the bulls

March 5, 2026 19:12

This morning we were still discussing the issue of retesting support. Now Bitcoin is at 73,088, Ethereum at 2,147, with gains narrowing to 2.48% and 3.66%. After reaching a high of 74,046, it couldn't hold, falling nearly $1,000, and is now bouncing around near 73,000. This level is very delicate — it hasn't broken support nor reclaimed the previous high, just hanging there.
The problem with Bitcoin lies in volume. Look at the trading volume: during the surge, it was very high, but now it's down to 2,621. MA5 and MA10 are both above 8,000, showing a serious divergence between volume and price. The price remains high, but trading volume is shrinking rapidly, indicating fewer and fewer people willing to buy at this price. SuperTrend 1H support has risen to 71,066, with about 2,000 dollars of space from the current price. In the short term, it won't fall that far, but if volume continues to shrink, this distance will close faster than you think.
Ethereum is slightly better. The current 2,147 is higher than this morning's 2,113, and SuperTrend support remains at 2,074, so structurally, there's no deterioration. But from the chart, you can see that after surging to 2,199, the pullback was ugly, oscillating downward until stabilizing around 2,092, and now a slight rebound to 2,147. This pattern doesn't look like accumulation; it looks more like high-level chips slowly changing hands.

Bull and Bear Probabilities
BTC | Current Price 73,088
📉 Volume continues to shrink, retesting 71,066 support (40%)
Trading volume can't keep up, willingness to buy at high levels is insufficient, and the price is gradually sliding back toward SuperTrend support. If it stabilizes in the 71,066–71,500 range, the bullish structure remains intact, depending on whether someone steps in.
⚖️ Around 73,000 sideways consolidation (30%)
No volume pushing it up, nor obvious selling pressure pushing the price down. It’s just hovering between 72,500 and 73,500. If tonight's US stocks stay quiet, this is the most likely scenario.
🚀 Volume breakout above 74,046, breaking previous high (20%)
Requires a clear catalyst, with volume quickly returning to take out the 74,046 high. Once broken, there’s no immediate resistance above, and it could really take off.
☠️ Falling below 71,066, deepening correction (10%)
Volume shrinks to a certain point, bulls lose patience, stop-loss orders trigger en masse, and it breaks below SuperTrend support. The first line of defense is around 69,500–70,000. If it can't hold, this wave of market movement will basically end.

ETH | Current Price 2,147
📉 High-level turnover incomplete, retesting 2,074 support (40%)
The move after falling from 2,199 isn't very clean, chips are still loosening. If BTC can't hold, Ethereum is likely to follow downward. SuperTrend support at 2,074 is critical; see if it can stabilize there.
⚖️ Range-bound between 2,100–2,160, waiting for direction (30%)
Following BTC in place, trading volume continues to shrink, waiting for a clear direction to emerge. Not much to do during this period, just wait.
🚀 Follow BTC breakout, retest 2,199 (20%)
If BTC can effectively break through 74,046, Ethereum may follow with a rally, retesting the 2,199 high or even surpassing 2,200. But the probability of Ethereum breaking out independently is almost zero; it depends entirely on BTC’s move.
☠️ Falling below 2,074, heading straight to 2,000 (10%)
Once it loses SuperTrend support, the downside space opens up. The 2,000 level will have some buy orders, but the decline will be painful.

Operational advice:
This level is tough on both sides. Going long now, volume can't keep up, and the risk-reward ratio is too low; shorting aggressively, support is still there, but the risk of going against the trend is significant. The safest approach is to wait — wait for BTC to signal, either volume to return and break through 74,046 or retest 71,066 for a low-entry opportunity. Entering now exposes you to potential hits from both sides.
Wait for signals, don’t guess the direction.

⚠️ Content for reference only, not investment advice. The market carries risks, make independent decisions.
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