Will Monday's opening see extreme volatility? Crude oil surges, US stocks come under pressure, can Bitcoin remain resilient? Quick recap.

1. Trump’s “Path Dependency” Faces Obstacles
His previous tough stance on Venezuela was effective, prompting Maduro to quickly concede, leading Trump to expect a swift victory. But this time, regarding Iran (including the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei), Iran has shown strong resistance, refusing to surrender or compromise. Trump publicly stated he wants to “participate in selecting Iran’s next leader” and demanded “unconditional surrender,” but Iran’s officials repeatedly emphasized that “the future will be decided by the Iranian people, and they will not yield.”

2. Military escalation continues, Iran’s low-cost counterattacks favored
The conflict has entered its second week. The US has increased forces, with the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier crossing the Suez Canal into the Red Sea, approaching the battlefield area (there are reports that a third carrier is also preparing for deployment). Iran relies on low-cost, asymmetric strikes using drones and missiles, supported by satellite positioning provided by Russia, continuing attacks on US and Israeli targets and oil tankers. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly halted, severely disrupting the global energy supply chain.

3. Similar to “Tariff War” script? Forced “victory” to stop losses after a plunge
The current market logic is similar to the early days of last year’s tariff war: geopolitical risks boost risk aversion, crude oil surges, US stocks retreat, and risk assets come under pressure. In extreme cases, a sharp decline could occur until Trump can no longer bear the economic/political costs, declaring “Iran is severely damaged” and seeking a ceasefire or concessions, leading to a rebound (epic in US stocks + crypto history). But this turning point is likely to take a few weeks; short-term risks remain high.

4. Monday’s market focus
US stocks and crude oil futures will open around 6:00 AM Taipei time (Sunday evening Eastern Time), with markets extremely tense. Crude oil has gone wild: WTI surged over 35% last week (the largest weekly gain in history), closing Friday at about $90.9/barrel; Brent neared $93, hitting multi-year highs. US stocks retreated sharply last week, with major indices like the Dow plunging, futures pointing to further declines.
In crypto, due to 24-hour trading, some negative news has already been priced in. Bitcoin has fallen significantly in the past two days but is relatively less affected.

5. Short-term Bitcoin observation
Bitcoin found clear support around 67,000 yesterday, briefly dipped below midday, then quickly recovered, showing strong defense by bulls.
The overall short-term trend remains bearish (negative factors not resolved), but a deep dip followed by a rebound is not surprising.
Trading ideas:
- Most conservative: wait for a rebound to resistance zone (around 69,000–70,000) before shorting 30% (similar to previous profit-taking), to see if the market offers an opportunity.
- After a significant drop, add shorts at the rebound high.
Long-term short positions held since 74,000 are already quite profitable; continue holding. Regardless of price movement, there are opportunities.

Summary: In the short term, geopolitical risks dominate. Crude oil and US stock futures are likely to remain volatile and weak on Monday, with extreme scenarios (sharp drops or violent surges) possible. Bitcoin is relatively resilient but cannot fully decouple from risk assets. It’s recommended to control positions, observe Monday’s opening reactions first, then decide whether to add or reduce holdings. Risk management first—don’t go all-in betting on direction.