Mandatory Course on Investment Psychology: Key Points Checklist

1. Market Sentiment Cycle: From FOMO to Panic
Core Manifestation: Anxiety-driven chasing during upswings (FOMO), panic selling during downturns, falling into a "buy high, sell low" cycle
Fundamental Cause: Linear thinking—mistaking short-term trends for long-term ones
Key to Breaking the Cycle: Understand market cycles and practice Buffett's principle "Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy"
2. **Loss Aversion**
* "As long as you don't sell, it's not a real loss" leads to holding onto losses stubbornly
* Sunk Cost Fallacy: Continuing to invest to recover losses
* The pain of stop-loss far exceeds the joy of taking profits
3. **Anchoring Effect**
* Anchoring to historical highs, believing "it will always bounce back"
* Being deceived by reference prices like "original price vs current price"
* Over-relying on past performance to predict the future
4. **Herd Effect**
* Abandoning independent judgment, blindly following the crowd
* Top of a bull market becomes "bagholder," bottom of a bear market turns into "cutting losses"
* Repeated history from tulip mania to cryptocurrency bubbles
3. Five-Step Construction Method for Rational Decision-Making System
1. **Establish Valuation Anchors**
* Use PE, PB, and other metrics to judge asset valuation
* Be cautious when valuations are high; position when valuations are at the bottom
* Price masking test: ignore historical prices, focus on intrinsic value
2. **Set Investment Discipline**
* Predefine take-profit and stop-loss points, enforce strictly
* No more struggles over "whether to sell," execute automatically according to rules
* Beware of "detachment"—thinking you can transcend the system
3. **Embrace Probabilistic Thinking**
* Every trade is a random event
* Evaluate the system over a cycle of 20-50 trades
* Stop obsessing over "predicting correctly," focus on "executing correctly"
4. **Reshape Review Thinking**
* From "mistake notebook" to "correct notebook": process is more important than results
* Profits may rely on luck; losses may be due to small probabilities
* Treat every investment experience equally
5. **Cultivate Patience**
* Overcome the natural tendency of impatience
* Data shows: the longer the holding period, the higher the probability of making money
* Extend the time horizon; peaks are just small waves within long-term trends
4. Core Maxims
* **The market has never changed because human nature is eternal**
* **Successful investing is not about beating the market, but about beating yourself**
* **Transform from a slave to emotions into a master of rationality**
* **Sow when no one is paying attention, harvest when the crowd is noisy**
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