PlanB Predicts Bitcoin Could Average $500,000 in the Current Market Cycle

Crypto analyst PlanB has sparked new discussion in the cryptocurrency community after updating his well-known Stock-to-Flow model, suggesting that Bitcoin could reach an average price of around $500,000 during the current market cycle.

The projection focuses on the period following the 2024 Bitcoin halving, an event that reduced the rate at which new BTC enters circulation.

Stock-to-Flow Model Points to Major Price Growth

The Stock-to-Flow model analyzes the relationship between Bitcoin’s existing supply and the rate of new coin production. Each halving cuts the block reward for miners, gradually reducing the flow of new Bitcoin into the market.

Historically, these halving events have often been followed by significant price increases. According to PlanB’s updated analysis, the 2024–2028 cycle could see Bitcoin averaging close to $500,000.

The model also incorporates several long-term indicators commonly used by analysts, including the 200-week moving average and the realized price metric. Past bull markets typically showed Bitcoin trading well above the 200-week moving average while market activity intensified.

Market Factors Could Influence the Projection

Despite the optimistic forecast, analysts note that price models remain statistical estimates rather than guarantees. Bitcoin’s long-term performance will also depend on several external factors.

Key elements that could influence the current cycle include growing institutional demand, reduced supply after halving events, and overall conditions in global financial markets.

Macroeconomic trends, global liquidity, and regulatory developments may also play a major role in shaping the cryptocurrency market. In addition, Bitcoin’s well-known volatility means the asset could deviate significantly from theoretical models in the short term.

For now, the Bitcoin cycle remains in progress. Investors are closely monitoring on-chain activity, exchange flows, and large wallet movements to determine whether the market will eventually move toward the levels projected by PlanB.