Hormuz Shipping Disruption Puts Over Dh10 Trillion In Global Trade At Risk

(MENAFN- Khaleej Times) Escalating missile attacks, maritime security threats and cyber intrusions are pushing one of the world’s most critical trade corridors close to paralysis, leaving thousands of cargo ships waiting in or around Gulf waters and putting trillions of dollars in global commerce at risk.

More than 3,200 cargo vessels remain inside the Arabian Gulf, while around 500 additional ships are waiting outside the region near ports along the coasts of the UAE and Oman, according to the latest maritime tracking data compiled by Clarksons Research and logistics firms Forward DMCC and DatamarNews.

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The disruption threatens trade flows worth around $2.8 trillion (Dh10.3 trillion) annually, the estimated value of goods passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to shipping and insurance industry estimates compiled by Lloyd’s and Discovery Alert.

Container ships, oil tankers and liquefied natural gas carriers have either dropped anchor or diverted routes after insurers withdrew war-risk coverage and several global shipping lines suspended new bookings through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy and trade corridors.

The narrow waterway carries about 20 per cent of global oil shipments and nearly one-third of the world’s liquefied natural gas exports, according to the International Energy Agency, making any prolonged disruption a major risk for global supply chains.

Shipping activity through the strait has already dropped sharply as tensions escalated in early March. Daily vessel traffic fell by about 63 per cent on March 1, declining from roughly 120 ships per day to just 44, according to shipping data cited by Caixin Global.

Within days, several of the world’s largest container carriers halted new bookings to Gulf destinations. By March 7, shipping companies including Maersk, Cosco, Mediterranean Shipping Company, Hapag-Lloyd, Ocean Network Express and CMA CGM had suspended shipments bound for parts of the region, according to logistics industry reports compiled by Gulf Cooperation Council Airports.

The disruption is also being amplified by cyber incidents targeting logistics infrastructure and port systems, raising concerns that digital attacks could further slow global supply chains.

“What we are witnessing is the intersection of military escalation and cyber activity aimed at the infrastructure that powers global trade,” Rayad Kamal Ayub, a cybersecurity expert, told Khaleej Times.

“If attackers gain control of port automation or refinery control systems, they can halt supply chains, inflate prices and even create safety risks while remaining largely invisible.”

Cybersecurity specialists say many industrial systems used by ports, refineries and customs networks were built primarily for operational efficiency rather than security, leaving them vulnerable to digital intrusions.

“Many of these systems still run legacy software with remote access tools designed for maintenance,” Ayub said.“Those conveniences can also become entry points for attackers.”

The economic ripple effects are already being felt in insurance and freight markets.

Marine war-risk insurance premiums for vessels operating on Middle East routes have surged between 500 and 1,000 percent, while freight surcharges have climbed sharply as shipping companies factor in rising security risks, according to insurance market assessments from Lloyd’s.

The disruption has also highlighted how dependent global trade remains on a handful of maritime chokepoints.

“This is the first time in modern maritime history that all major carriers have simultaneously stepped away from an entire region,” Lars Jensen, chief executive of Vespucci Maritime, said in comments cited by Continuum Relocation.

Energy markets are watching the situation closely because of the Strait of Hormuz’s central role in global oil flows.

“Escalating conflict involving Iran near the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk of a broader energy shock,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, said in analysis published by World Oil. Oil prices briefly surged toward $120 per barrel before easing slightly on Monday as the conflict intensified.

The International Energy Agency has also warned that any prolonged interruption to energy flows through the strait would quickly reverberate across commodity markets and major importing economies.

Cybersecurity analysts say the current disruption may represent only the early stages of a broader threat to global trade infrastructure.

“We are at the beginning, not the end,” security technologist Bruce Schneier wrote in commentary on his Schneier on Security blog.“The real danger emerges when multiple critical systems are targeted at the same time.”

Ayub said coordinated attacks on ports, logistics networks and customs systems could amplify the impact of physical disruptions.

“If several ports or logistics networks are hit simultaneously, delays can cascade through the entire global supply chain,” he said.

Analysts say the coming weeks may determine whether the crisis remains a temporary logistics shock or escalates into one of the most serious disruptions to global trade in decades.

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