Robusta and Arabica Coffee Face Sustained Selling Pressure as Global Supply Outlook Strengthens

The coffee market remained under considerable selling pressure throughout February and into early March, with both robusta and arabica futures trading in mixed territory as traders reassess the supply landscape. Following a significant selloff last week, May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed up 0.30 points (+0.11%) on Friday, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) declined 29 points (-0.80%). According to Barchart’s commodity analysis, the mixed price action reflects ongoing tension between short-covering efforts spurred by dollar weakness and persistent bearish factors tied to surging global coffee supplies.

Market Wrap: Dollar Weakness Provides Brief Support Today

Friday’s commodity session witnessed a temporary reprieve in coffee selling, driven largely by weakness in the U.S. dollar index (DXY). The softer dollar environment prompted traders to cover short positions, providing modest support across both arabica and robusta contracts today. However, this near-term technical support proved insufficient to reverse the broader downtrend, as concerns about expanding global coffee inventories continued to weigh on sentiment. Barchart’s analysts note that while currency movements can provide tactical trading opportunities, the fundamental supply picture remains the dominant driver of price direction in the coffee complex.

Brazil’s Record Coffee Output Forecast Weighs on Both Robusta and Arabica

The primary bearish catalyst for coffee prices continues to stem from Brazil, the world’s largest producer. On February 5, Conab—Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency—announced a substantially higher production outlook for the 2026 crop year. The agency expects Brazil’s coffee production to surge by 17.2% year-over-year, reaching a record 66.2 million bags. This increase encompasses arabica output climbing 23.2% to 44.1 million bags and robusta production rising 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.

Adding to the bullish supply dynamics for consumers but bearish for coffee producers, favorable weather in Brazil’s primary growing regions has further bolstered yield expectations. Somar Meteorologia reported on February 6 that Minas Gerais—Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing region—received 72.6 millimeters of rain during the week ending February 6, representing 113% of the historical average. Such ample precipitation supports the potential for achieving Conab’s elevated production targets, intensifying downward price pressure across the arabica complex.

Vietnam’s Surging Robusta Exports Add to Downside Pressure

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, has emerged as another significant bearish factor for robusta prices specifically. On February 6, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office disclosed that January coffee exports jumped 38.3% year-over-year to 198,000 metric tons, indicating robust export momentum heading into the new year. For the full 2025 calendar year, Vietnam’s coffee exports climbed 17.5% year-over-year to 1.58 million metric tons.

Looking ahead to the 2025/26 crop year, Vietnam’s coffee production is projected to rise 6.0% year-over-year to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags). These figures underscore the continued expansion in Vietnam’s robusta output, a dynamic that Barchart commodity watchers identify as a persistent structural headwind for robusta prices in the near to medium term.

ICE Inventory Recovery Signals Ample Global Supply

While ICE arabica inventories initially fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags on November 18, they have since recovered substantially, reaching a 3.75-month high of 461,829 bags as of January 7. Similarly, ICE robusta coffee inventories, which declined to a 14-month low of 4,012 lots on December 10, subsequently climbed to a 2.75-month high of 4,662 lots on January 26. This inventory recovery signals that global supplies remain adequate, countering any near-term supply tightness and providing additional price headwinds.

Countervailing Support: Smaller Supplies from Key Producers

Despite the generally bearish picture, selective supply-side considerations provide limited price support in certain robusta and arabica segments. Brazil’s coffee exports fell sharply by 42.4% year-over-year in January to 141,000 metric tons, reflecting the timing of harvest cycles and export calendars rather than structural supply constraints. More significantly, Colombia—the world’s second-largest arabica producer—has experienced production challenges, with January coffee production declining 34% year-over-year to 893,000 bags according to the National Federation of Coffee Growers.

Global Supply Expansion Continues to Drive Outlook

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported in November that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October-September) declined marginally by 0.3% year-over-year to 138.658 million bags. However, the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projects stronger production ahead: world coffee production in 2025/26 is forecast to increase 2.0% year-over-year to a record 178.848 million bags, comprising 95.515 million bags of arabica (down 4.7% year-over-year) and 83.333 million bags of robusta (up 10.9% year-over-year).

The FAS specifically forecasts that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will total 63 million bags and Vietnam’s output will reach 30.8 million bags, both significant contributions to global supply growth. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25, suggesting that despite record production, the global coffee market may maintain modest stock drawdowns.

What Barchart Analysts Are Watching

As Barchart’s commodity research continues to track the coffee complex, the interplay between record Brazilian and Vietnamese production, adequate inventory levels, and ongoing currency fluctuations will likely dominate near-term price behavior. The combination of record supply forecasts and improving weather in key production regions suggests that downward pressure on both robusta and arabica prices may persist unless demand indicators strengthen materially or external disruptions to supply chains materialize.