Market Reaction to the Iran War

Market reactions to the Iran conflict have clearly manifested in the commodities market.

Since February 28 (when the conflict escalated), data shows: • WTI Oil +27% • Brent Oil +18% • Natural Gas +6% • Corn +4% Meanwhile: • Gold −0.6% • Copper −2.2% • Silver −6% • Platinum −7% Notably: in true geopolitical crises, energy is often affected first — not gold. Why? Because war doesn’t start as a financial crisis. It begins as a supply chain crisis. No oil → trucks stop running. No gas → factories shut down. Look at Europe’s energy crisis in 2022: when gas supplies collapsed, the affected assets weren’t precious metals, but energy. The second category: Agricultural commodities This is the aspect most overlooked in macro investing. Gold helps preserve wealth in peacetime. But food determines survival during crises. War disrupts fertilizer supplies, drives up pesticide prices, and stalls global grain trade. When supply chains are disrupted, food prices rise to ensure survival. Historically, during inflation shocks or supply disruptions: corn, wheat, and soybeans have the steepest price curves on the market. The third category: Strategic resources The silent kings of modern geopolitics. Lithium. Cobalt. Nickel. Advanced semiconductor supply chains. If global logistics are disrupted, high-tech industries will be shocked. At that point, these materials cease to function as commodities — they become strategic reserves in wartime. Governments may hoard them at all costs. Corporations will compete to acquire them. Owning upstream supply means positioning to cope with structural shortages. If global supply chains are severely disrupted: • Gold retains value • Energy creates value • Cash maintains liquidity • Food sustains life • Cyclical speculative stocks • Scarce resources trade for sovereignty In times of instability, the physical properties of assets matter more than their financial characteristics. 🌍📉📈