US Unemployment Rate Expected to Rise Further:

In February, 11% of American small businesses cited "poor sales" as the most important problem they face, a proportion close to the highest level since 2020.

This is the fourth most mentioned problem, behind only taxes, labor quality, and inflation.

Over the past three years, this proportion has tripled and currently reaches levels seen during previous economic recessions.

Historically, this has been a leading indicator of rising unemployment, as small businesses are the largest employers in the economy.

This means unemployment could spike from its current 4.4% to above 5% over the coming months.

This would be the highest level since mid-2021 during the post-pandemic recovery period.

In one sentence: short-term bearish, long-term bullish
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