$ETH Today's Market Analysis and Forecast

Ethereum delivered a textbook-level liquidity hunting chart last night. After the price consolidated in the 2085-2119 range for exactly 10 hours, the main force launched a sudden attack at 22:00, with three consecutive 1H bullish candles relaying the push higher: the first one +16 breaking above the previous high of 2119 confirming BOS, the second one +10 steady advancement, the third one directly surging +45 points to 2184, with volume of 40.39 million contracts being over three times the daily average. Subsequently at 23:00, it precisely swept through the 2200 psychological level, touched 2202, then quickly retreated 23 points to 2172—a typical sweep-and-run liquidity harvesting technique—all the stop-loss orders above 2200 were wiped out.

From the 4H larger timeframe structure perspective, since touching bottom at 2060 on March 14th, the low points have continuously risen, forming a perfect bullish ladder: 2060-2068-2075-2082-2087-2108, with seven consecutive 4H bullish candles pushing up over 100 points. Last night's surge candle had a real body of +65 and volume of 103 million contracts, which is 3.7 times the recent average—this level of volume-price coordination typically appears at the climax stage of the main uptrend. Notably, the first 4H candle after the surge only declined -7.9 with obvious volume contraction, indicating that bullish profit-taking has not massively fled the market, and the market still has intentions to push higher.

However, we must also see the risk factors: 4H RSI has entered the 75-80 overbought zone, price is about 70 points away from EMA20, with deviation rate exceeding 3%. From historical statistics, this position would likely see a moving average mean reversion. Meanwhile, the 15M level has already formed a descending triangle, with highs gradually declining from 2187 to 2174 while lows repeatedly test 2164, with the direction of inflection point pending.

Today's Core Judgment: Likely a consolidation digestion day, with the main operating range at 2150-2200. The bulls-bears dividing line is at 2164—if held, then after high-level consolidation, continue to impinge on 2200; if broken through, it triggers a mid-level pullback targeting the 2130-2150 FVG (Fair Value Gap) make-up zone, which is also the Fibonacci 50%-61.8% golden retracement level, an excellent spot to add longs. Operationally, not recommended to chase highs; prioritize waiting for pullback to 2150-2158 to go long, with stop-loss at 2134 and target at 2200. If price again impinges on 2200 but 15M shows a bearish reversal pattern, reversing to short is also a good opportunity, targeting 2170-2150.