Economic Half Hour 260318

Last week, the market showed clear signs of gradual recovery. Spot buying pressure rebounded, ETF funds continued to flow in, and investor profitability improved slightly. However, on-chain trading activity remained sluggish, and futures market positioning was cautious, indicating that overall confidence has not yet fully recovered. After eight consecutive days of strong rallies, Bitcoin is currently standing at a critical decision point under the large-cycle bearish structure—the result of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting early this morning will directly determine whether this oversold rebound tops out in place or launches an assault on the $80,000 level.

The key resistance zone upward is located between $74,400 and $85,000, which is a dense trapped zone since last year and also the critical defense line for short-term bears. Institutional capital faces significant selling pressure in this area. Yesterday, BTC failed multiple times to break through $74,400, showing that bulls' willingness to chase higher is weakening. On the downside, $71,500 to $72,200 is the bulls' first line of defense, with $72,000 being the current psychological midpoint. If it breaks below this level today due to macro headwinds, it could trigger further declines. If $69,000 is broken, it may cause panic selling and confirm that this eight-day rally officially ends.

Operationally, a defensive mindset should be maintained today, and chasing longs is not recommended. Short sellers from the left side can watch for opportunities when price rallies to the $74,400-$74,800 area before the meeting. Special caution is needed regarding the extremely crowded long and short positioning—the market may execute "dual-directional pin bars" at any time before the meeting to liquidate leverage. Regardless of the meeting outcome, please strictly enforce stop-losses and avoid heavy betting before the direction becomes clear.

ETH's recent high of 2385 may become a phase resistance level, with support below at 2295. If BTC's first line of defense breaks, it will likely decline accordingly.