Thoughts on Bitcoin, Iran, Trump, Stocks, and price targets:

Bitcoin can bottom in Q3 despite being in consensus, because there will be something driving fear in the market at the time. Humans are great at predicting outcomes but not at acting upon them.
In the short term, I am in the camp of $80K soon if there is any sign of de-escalation, although there aren't many signs of it, and I also wonder what de-escalation will look like. Iran can monetize the Straight of Hormuz indefinitely, even if the US scales back its efforts.
A prolonged conflict is Iran's best outcome because it is the most destructive for the USA. They know this, and Trump does too; it's why they hit Iran so hard in the beginning.
Trump is a man of markets. If we think of this war as a trade, I think he will look to signal de-escalation to the markets this week if stocks continue tumbling. The longer this war lasts, the bigger the inflationary shock and stock tumble.
Key levels to watch:
- SPY @ 630
- Bitcoin @ $65K
- Solana @ 75
- Hyperliquid @ 30-32
I will be looking towards European Stocks, Bitcoin, Hyperliquid, and Solana as assets to buy once we see de-escalation. I am still debating whether these will be long-term buys or trades; it will depend on prices and market conditions.