Yichen: Weakening dollar boosts gold's violent surge, with short-seller defenses completely collapsing

From a technical standpoint, on the 4-hour chart, gold prices have strongly broken through the middle Bollinger Band and are steadily approaching the upper band. Short-term moving averages are aligned in a bullish configuration, providing solid support for the gold price. Although the KDJ indicator is at high levels, it continues to diverge upward, indicating strong bullish momentum. Short-term pullbacks are more likely to be consolidations rather than trend reversals.

On the news front, the Middle East geopolitical conflicts continue to escalate, with shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz increasing. Global risk aversion sentiment has reached unprecedented levels, leading large amounts of capital to flow into gold as a safe haven, becoming the core driver of the price rally. Meanwhile, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June are rising, putting pressure on the US dollar index and causing it to weaken, which further enhances the upside potential of precious metals. If the upcoming US initial jobless claims data come in weaker than expected, it will directly reinforce expectations for rate cuts, pushing gold above $4,600 and opening up more room for gains.

Recommendations:
Consider scaling into long positions on dips near 4455-4485, with targets at 4580 and 4640; if broken, watch 4700; aggressive traders may consider adding longs near 4500.

Disclaimer: The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading based on this analysis is at your own risk. $XAU