There will be a major event at 8:00 AM

At 8:00 AM Beijing time on the 8th—that is, the final ultimatum Trump has given Iran is about to arrive. If Iran does not make concessions, Trump will launch attacks on Iran’s civilian infrastructure, and the situation in the Middle East will continue to escalate.

From today’s news flow, it’s basically constant tug-of-war between the US and Iran. Iran’s stance is very firm; it will not back down in this war. However, today there have already been indications of some funds fleeing, putting pressure on BTC and pushing it downward.

At present, there are two scenarios: First, Trump fails to carry out his words with an attack. This will be viewed by the market as risk being lifted, which is a positive factor. A short-term rebound will cause BTC to test 70000 USD again, but it will not have a lasting impact. In the end, it will still fall.

Second, the negotiation and ceasefire agreement fails, and the US carries out military strikes, triggering panic in the market and leading to a wave of selling. This could make it possible for BTC to retest the 65500 area again. Because this level is a strong support in the near term, in my view, the probability of a breakdown followed by continuation is relatively small.

Simply put, will it be: rise first and then fall, or will it just get smashed right away? We’ll just wait for Trump to make the final call with one move. So our main strategy is to focus on shorting—wait until there is a true complete ceasefire between the US and Iran. At that time, it will be a good opportunity to buy the dip.

For tonight’s trading, my recommendation is to boldly short BTC below 69000, and directly short ETH below 2120. The initial targets are 66500/2020. If it breaks through, reduce position size and hold on. Remember to keep it light—don’t make a heavy trade. Reserve room to add at #Gate广场四月发帖挑战