An increase in the VIX index to its highest level in a year, surpassing 35, reflects a serious panic atmosphere in traditional markets. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $73,500, but historical data shows us an interesting pattern. When volatility indices rise rapidly, Bitcoin tends to hit a bottom. This pattern has clearly emerged in past crises.

Examples speak for themselves. During the market turmoil caused by tariffs in April 2025, the VIX surged to about 60 while Bitcoin found support around $75,000. In August 2024, during the collapse of the new carry trade, when the VIX exceeded 64, Bitcoin dropped to $49,000. A similar movement occurred during the banking crisis in March 2023; the VIX briefly rose above 30, and Bitcoin fell to $20,000. The inverse correlation between these indices carries an important signal for investors.

On the crypto side, the situation appears somewhat different. Bitcoin’s own volatility indicator, BVIV, rose above 96 when Bitcoin dropped to $60,000 in early February, marking the highest level after the August 2024 crisis. Now, BVIV is hovering slightly above 60. This divergence supports an interesting hypothesis: crypto markets may have priced in traditional financial stresses in advance. However, the fact that VIX remains around 30 indicates that volatility in traditional markets has not yet fully resolved.

An interesting detail: despite reporting approximately $5 billion in losses in 2025, SpaceX holds about 8,285 Bitcoin worth around $603 million on Coinbase. The company’s interest in crypto assets shows that traditional financial players are also paying attention to this field. Whatever the indices say, institutional players continue to see Bitcoin as a store of value.