The usual standard for what someone claims is just convincing or at least objectively convincing, any personal belief, any definite belief, is a bet, often someone claims it with confidence and challenges the error firmly, challenges your error. Urgent welcome to the bet, and sometimes it reveals that there is enough conviction for him to make a bet with one coin and not with ten, but at ten he suddenly finds that it is very likely that there is an error that he did not notice previously.

— Immanuel Kant, Critique of Pure Reason
Yes, elections contribute to almost all trading volumes on Polymarket today.
But there are other topics heading upwards. Personally, I hope they spread.
Sports betting becomes a bigger share.
Accurate financial predictions will become more important. Examples include:
- Cutting and raising interest rates
- Inflation figures in the Consumer Price Index
- Meeting profit expectations
We will also see specific financial expectations that cannot be expressed as a call or put options:
- "Will the market value of Apple be larger than Nvidia on January 1, 2025?"
Our sector will be better if the loud voices not only stop praying for the collapse of prediction markets because they have not received a Polymarket allocation.
Prediction markets are very important for the future of humanity.
The news must be determined by the free collective market, not by a few biased media companies owned and operated by individuals.