Bitcoin dropped below $59,000 after hotter-than-expected U.S. PCE inflation triggered a risk-off move across markets. The spike in inflation weakened hopes for near-term Fed rate cuts, pushing the dollar higher and pressuring risk assets. Heavy liquidations and ETF outflows accelerated the selloff, briefly dragging BTC to its lowest level since 2024 as the “debasement trade” narrative faded. $BTC ‌

Today’s fatigue is both physical and mental. On the one hand, after Micron’s earnings report turned out well, both U.S. stocks and Bitcoin saw an optimistic rebound. On the other hand, we’re just waiting for the core PCE data. Although the data wasn’t unexpected, the inflation is still reasonable relative to expectations. As I’ve been saying recently, the inflation is from the period of the U.S. and Iran war—not now. After three months of fighting, oil prices have already fallen from around $100 to $70. In other words, for the inflation that rose over three months, it should theoretically return to normal within three to four months. Also, the pace of the oil price decline has surprised many investors. It’s very possible that by August or September, inflation will show a clear drop—meaning the likelihood of a rate hike in September is too low. After the inflation data was released, U.S. stocks did indeed fall again, and $BTC also saw another downturn, but U.S. stocks had already completed a recovery by the early morning. Compared with yesterday’s close, the Nasdaq is up nearly 1%, and the S&P 500 has also returned to positive territory. This suggests that if the drop was caused by core PCE, the stock market has already absorbed it. But Bitcoin is genuinely uncomfortable: when it falls, it falls more, and when it rises, the rebound is much weaker—especially given the FUD around $MSTR , which has kept Bitcoin bearish all the way. I can’t be sure how prices will move in the short term, but if it really is due to core PCE, I believe U.S. stocks can react in time. For Bitcoin, it’s just a matter of time before it catches up. Of course, it’s also possible that some investors sell Bitcoin to buy U.S. stocks, and that’s normal. After all, $MU Micron’s earnings were so excellent. That means over the next month, before Nvidia’s earnings report, the market won’t be overly worried about the AI bubble. But for cryptocurrencies, what still needs to be restored is users’ confidence. #BTC下探60000美元关键关口 $BTC ‌

From a technical-structure perspective, the current price action is largely unfolding as expected. On the weekly chart, downside room has opened up, with the structure continuing to show breakdowns accompanied by expanding volume. As long as the market does not produce a strong rebound, shorting remains the dominant theme. Whether it is scaling into shorts on rallies or following the downside momentum directly, this core approach does not need to change for now. The weekly chart is still extending a strong bearish close, and any brief pauses or corrective bounces are likely to be limited. Do not let small short-term fluctuations affect your broader trend outlook. The market is expected to continue following a pattern of high-volume pullbacks followed by sideways consolidation to build momentum. On the daily chart, after a period of sideways consolidation, price has entered a large bearish breakdown phase. Given the current structure, the market should be treated as a one-way trend, with bearish momentum likely to continue after the breakdown. $BTC ‌