#数字资产行情上升 Bitcoin 1-hour chart implications: seemingly calm on the surface, but undercurrents flowing beneath

After years of trading, I've seen plenty of clues foreshadowing bull-bear reversals. The hourly chart before us is staging an invisible battle between long and short capital——don't be fooled by the "dormant" appearance of Bollinger Bands contraction. MACD's DIF and DEA repeatedly hovering below the zero line often signals silent accumulation before the market makes its move.

I'm analyzing this from three angles:

**What can technicals tell us?** Price is being firmly suppressed by the BOLL middle band, but here's a key detail——volume expands on downswings, yet contracts on rebounds. This is indeed a weakness signal. However, the MACD histogram is already showing signs of bullish divergence; price makes new lows but momentum doesn't weaken accordingly. It's like a bow fully drawn, with the arrow about to be released.

**What's the on-chain story telling?** Over the past day, exchange net inflow data shows 32,000 BTC surging in, while whale addresses are layering long positions simultaneously. Retail is panic selling while institutions are quietly accumulating——this divergence often signals short-term bottom formation.

**What opportunities does the macro backdrop provide?** The latest Fed meeting minutes hint at not ruling out rate cuts. Bitcoin spot ETF holdings are also growing against the trend, suggesting liquidity tightening expectations are easing, providing crypto assets some breathing room.

**How to trade?** Market sentiment has reached panic extremes, yet smart money is positioning. If price consolidates in this zone for 4-6 hours, a breakout of the middle band accompanied by MACD bullish cross and volume expansion could send the short-term rebound straight toward 92500. Conversely, if volume breaks down, exit decisively.

Trading's core has never been predicting direction right, but executing plans and discipline. Already placing buy orders in tranches, waiting for the market to validate this logic. Remember this: good rallies often appear at the most desperate moments, then continue when everyone hesitates.

$BTC