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Recently, JPMorgan Chase made an important adjustment: lowering its year-end target for the S&P 500 index in 2026 from 7500 points to 7200 points. This move is not simply a numerical correction, but a signal worth vigilance.

JPMorgan Chase clearly pointed out that the market's assessment of current geopolitical risks is too "complacent." Since the escalation of Middle East conflicts, oil prices have surged over 46%, yet U.S. stocks have fallen less than 4%, and this pricing carries high risk. Historical data shows that of five oil shocks since the 1970s, four led to economic recessions. Persistently high oil prices not only erode corporate profits—every $10 increase in oil prices could drag down S&P 500 earnings by 2%-5%—but could also trigger global economic slowdown through demand destruction.

Therefore, JPMorgan Chase's warning hits the mark: we face not only inflation, but also potential stagflation risks. The market needs to face the persistence of energy shocks and reassess the balance between growth and valuation.