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After the weekly settlement, BTC surged significantly and has approached $74,000, nearing the upper band of the consolidation range since February.
The options market has shown a lukewarm response. The implied volatility of BTC doomsday options remains below 50%, and ETH doomsday options' implied volatility remains below 70%, both lower than the implied volatility of major maturities.
In terms of trading volume, large bullish options trades account for less than 30% of total volume, concentrated in shallow out-of-the-money contracts at month-end. For a 5% price movement, this is relatively low. The options market has not priced this rally well. VRP has rebounded but has not turned positive; the market still believes volatility is overestimated.
Currently, the consolidation range has not been effectively broken. If the market can break through $75,000 over the weekend during thin liquidity conditions and successfully break out of the consolidation range, then follow-up rallies could materialize. However, the difficulty is immense.