June 12, 2026, marked SpaceX’s debut on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, completing the largest IPO in human history—raising approximately $75 billion with shares priced at $135 each, valuing the company at about $1.77 trillion. On its first day, the stock surged over 19%, closing at $160.95. In the days that followed, retail investors flocked to SPCX—during its first week, net retail purchases reached $405 million, surpassing the combined net retail inflows into the "Magnificent Seven" US tech giants. On June 16, the stock hit an all-time high of $225.64, pushing SpaceX’s market cap close to $3 trillion.
However, the celebration lasted less than a week. Starting June 18, SPCX declined for three consecutive trading days, with a single-day drop of 16% on June 22, closing at $154.60. From its peak, the stock fell over 31%, wiping out about $600 billion in market value in just three trading days. By June 23, SPCX had fallen below its IPO day closing price, leaving nearly all investors who bought at the top underwater.
Why did this "largest IPO ever" experience such a rapid pullback within two weeks? For SPCX holders, is this correction merely a short-term emotional reaction, or the start of a fundamental revaluation? Let’s break down the underlying logic behind this downturn across four dimensions: lock-up structure, bond issuance pressure, valuation disagreements, and business fundamentals.
Why Did SPCX Give Back Most Gains in Two Weeks?
Liquidity’s Double-Edged Sword: Ultra-Thin Float Amplifies Volatility
The dramatic rise and subsequent plunge in SPCX share price both stem from the same structural root—an extremely limited public float. Currently, only about 4.2% of SpaceX shares are available for public trading. This scarcity magnifies buying pressure during rallies, as concentrated inflows from retail and institutional investors quickly drove the price to $225. Conversely, the same liquidity vacuum means even modest selling can trigger sharp declines. SPCX saw nearly a 30% trading range within just four days—a rare occurrence for a trillion-dollar company.
$20 Billion Bond Issuance: Market Interprets "Cash Burn" as a Red Flag
One immediate catalyst for the recent sell-off was SpaceX’s announcement of its first investment-grade bond offering, aiming to raise at least $20 billion. The proceeds are primarily intended to repay bridge loans due in 2027 and further fund AI initiatives.
The market’s reaction skewed negative: a company fresh off a $75 billion IPO launching a $20 billion bond issue was seen by some investors as a sign of cash flow strain. In 2025, SpaceX’s AI division had an operating cash outflow of $6.4 billion, with revenue at just $3.2 billion. In Q1 2026, the company invested another $7.7 billion in AI capital expenditures. With GAAP profitability still out of reach (a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025 and an expected $8.92 billion loss in 2026), the large-scale bond financing inevitably raised concerns about the health of SpaceX’s balance sheet.
Lock-Up Countdown: Anticipated Supply Shock Already Priced In
The lock-up period is another key factor weighing on SPCX. SpaceX’s lock-up structure is complex: the first window for insider sales is expected to open between late July and the August earnings release, unlocking about 20% of shares. If SPCX trades above $175.50 for five consecutive sessions, an additional 10% could unlock early. Roughly 7% of shares will unlock around August 21 and September 10, respectively. By early September, up to 44% of SpaceX shares could be eligible for sale. The standard 180-day lock-up is set to expire in mid-December 2026. Elon Musk and core shareholders have portions locked until June 2027.
Strategists at 22V Research note that these unlocks could expand SPCX’s public float by roughly 900%. While index inclusion (such as Nasdaq 100 or MSCI) may bring some passive buying, expectations of a sharp supply increase are already reflected in the price—markets are pricing in the impending supply shock over the next few months.
Valuation Debate: Is SpaceX Worth $1.77 Trillion?
SPCX’s valuation controversy is unprecedented on Wall Street. The IPO price of $135 implied a $1.77 trillion valuation; even after a steep correction, the June 22 closing price of $154.60 still values SpaceX at roughly $2.03 trillion.
The bulls argue that SpaceX is a rare "Space + Internet + AI" triple play. New Street analyst Pierre Ferragu set a 12-month target of $165, Wolfe Research gave a $175 target and an "outperform" rating, and Arete Research raised its target to $401 on June 18. According to S&P Global’s compilation of five analyst ratings, SPCX’s consensus is "Buy," with an average target of $164.
The bears are equally vocal. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens values SpaceX at just $780 billion—55% below the IPO valuation. He points out that $1.77 trillion implies "a 67x price-to-sales ratio, triple Nvidia’s based on recent fiscal year and stock rating." CFRA gave a "Sell" rating and $115 target on IPO day. KeyBanc issued a "sector-weight" (neutral) rating on June 22, noting that "while SpaceX will remain a leader in space launches, most long-term value is already priced in." Some research firms have set targets as low as $21–$28. The extreme spread—from $63 to $401—underscores the high uncertainty in current valuation.
Even after the correction, SPCX’s price-to-sales ratio exceeds 90x, compared to about 3.7x for the S&P 500. For a company with $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue and a GAAP net loss of $4.9 billion, the market is clearly paying a huge premium for future growth—or, more accurately, for the "Musk premium."
The Reality Behind Three Growth Tracks
To understand SPCX’s valuation, one must dissect its business structure. The market’s pricing logic isn’t based on a single business model, but rather three distinct narratives layered together.
Starlink: The Core Asset Anchored by Traditional Valuation Models
Starlink is currently SpaceX’s only profitable division. In Q1 2026, Starlink generated about $3.3 billion in revenue, accounting for 69% of SpaceX’s total $4.7 billion revenue. The division posted $1.19 billion in operating profit, with an operating margin of 63%. As of March 2026, Starlink had roughly 9,600 satellites in orbit, 10.3 million subscribers, and coverage in 164 countries or markets.
Industry forecasts expect Starlink’s 2026 annual revenue to grow about 80% to $18.7 billion, comprising 79% of SpaceX’s total. Yet, risks remain: Starlink’s average monthly revenue per user has dropped from $99 in 2023 to about $66 in Q1 2026. Whether this "growth through price cuts" strategy can sustain long-term value is a key variable.
Launch Services: Market Leader, but Thin Profits
SpaceX’s space division—the dominant force in global rocket launches—posted Q1 2026 revenue of just $619 million, with full-year 2025 revenue at $4.1 billion. The division lost $657 million in 2025. While launch services are SpaceX’s brand foundation and strategic moat, their financial contribution falls far short of supporting a trillion-dollar valuation.
AI Compute: The Emerging Third Growth Curve
AI represents the most imaginative—and uncertain—component of SpaceX’s valuation. In 2025, the AI division lost $6.4 billion. But SpaceX is transforming its Colossus AI data center from a cost center into a revenue engine. On June 22, SpaceX announced a $6.3 billion compute contract with open-source AI startup Reflection AI, with Reflection set to pay $150 million per month starting July 1, 2026, through 2029. Previously, SpaceX leased Colossus 1 to Anthropic, earning $1.25 billion per month.
These AI compute deals are creating a new stream of recurring revenue for SpaceX. Annualized, contracts with Anthropic and Reflection alone could deliver substantial recurring income. The challenge: AI compute leasing is a fiercely competitive market, and whether SpaceX can maintain pricing power and customer loyalty remains to be seen.
How to Participate in SPCX via Gate
Gate users can trade SPCX shares directly through the platform’s "Stock Zone" by navigating to Gate App - TradFi - Stocks - Search SPCX. The zone supports USDT trading, with a minimum purchase of 0.01 shares, lowering the entry barrier. Previously, SPCX was featured as Gate’s inaugural "Direct IPO" project, with allocated shares distributed to participating users—these can be freely traded post-listing, with no lock-up period. Gate also offers SPCXUSDT perpetual contracts (up to 50x leverage) and 3x long/short leveraged ETF products, allowing users to choose different tools based on their risk preferences.
Conclusion
SPCX’s drop from $225.64 to $154.60 within two weeks appears to be a textbook "post-IPO pullback," but beneath the surface lie multiple structural factors: the volatility amplifier effect of a thin float, cash flow concerns triggered by a $20 billion bond issue, anticipated supply shocks from lock-up expirations, and intense bull-bear battles within the $1.77–$2 trillion valuation range.
Fundamentally, Starlink’s profitability, new revenue streams from AI compute contracts, and SpaceX’s monopoly in space launches form the pillars of long-term value. From a valuation perspective, even after a 31% correction, SPCX’s price-to-sales ratio remains above 90x, with GAAP losses expected to persist through 2026. The vast gap between Morningstar’s $780 billion fair value and the current $2 trillion market cap highlights the uncertainty—whether this correction is a "golden opportunity" or the start of a valuation reset remains unresolved.
For investors, it’s crucial to recognize that SPCX is not an "ordinary stock." It’s the ultimate vehicle for the "Musk concept" in public markets, with its price reflecting significant founder premium, narrative premium, and scarcity premium. Key variables to watch in the coming quarters include lock-up expirations, bond issuance progress, Starlink’s ARPU trends, and AI compute contract execution. Whether participating via spot, tokenized shares, or perpetual contracts, risk management must come first—in a stock with only 4% float and 30% volatility in two weeks, any lapse in position management can prove costly.
