On June 18 (Beijing time) in the early morning, the Federal Reserve will announce its June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision. This marks the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Walsh since he was sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve on May 22. While there is virtually no disagreement in the market regarding the rate decision itself—the CME FedWatch tool shows a probability of over 98% that rates will remain in the 3.50% to 3.75% range—the real intrigue of this meeting goes far beyond that.
Changes in the language of the policy statement, possible shifts in the dot plot, and Walsh’s intentions to reform the Fed’s communications framework together form a trio of variables that could reshape global risk asset pricing. For Bitcoin, which has already fallen from its historic high of $126,000 to around $65,000, the repricing of macro policy expectations may weigh even more heavily than the rate decision itself.
Why an "Unsurprising" Rate Decision Still Matters
A rate hold in itself is not news. The Fed has held rates steady for three consecutive meetings this year, with the last rate cut dating back to December 2025. Economists widely expect this meeting to keep the federal funds rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. A CNBC survey of 32 economists, fund managers, and strategists found unanimous agreement that the Fed will not change rates at this meeting—or at any meeting before 2027.
However, the "certainty" of the rate decision actually amplifies the market impact of other variables. Once an outcome is fully priced in, the market’s focus naturally shifts to dimensions that have not yet been priced. The core focus of this FOMC meeting is not "will rates change," but rather "will the policy framework change"—and that is the real variable that could trigger asset repricing.
Why the Policy Statement May Drop Its "Easing Bias"
The Fed’s current policy statement contains a key phrase: "In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." The word "additional" in this context has been widely interpreted by markets as a signal of an easing bias.
This language is now under increasing internal pressure. As early as the April FOMC meeting, three regional Fed presidents—Cleveland’s Harker, Minneapolis’s Kashkari, and Dallas’s Logan—voted against the statement for this very reason. Meanwhile, the latest data shows US CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May, marking the first time in three years it has entered the "4% era." With this data mix, the macro basis for maintaining an easing bias no longer exists.
In this week’s CNBC survey, 88% of respondents expect the Fed to remove the easing bias from its policy statement. If this expectation is met, it would amount to an official confirmation that "the rate-cutting cycle is over"—and the likelihood of rate hikes and cuts would become balanced. For crypto assets that rely on the narrative of easy liquidity, this is the first shock to market expectations.
Why the Dot Plot May Be Missing a Key "Dot"
The dot plot is part of the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), showing each official’s outlook for future interest rates. The March dot plot indicated that Fed officials still expected one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027.
However, the June dot plot may look very different. Huatai Securities expects the dot plot guidance to shift from one rate cut in both 2026 and 2027 to rates remaining unchanged. Barclays anticipates the median dot will move higher, pointing to unchanged rates in 2026, just one cut in 2027, and no change in 2028. As of June 15, CME FedWatch data shows the market assigns a 0% probability to a rate cut in 2026, and about a 70% probability to at least a 25-basis-point hike by December.
But the biggest twist in this dot plot may not be the movement of the median, but the potential absence of one "dot"—Walsh’s own forecast. Walsh publicly criticized the dot plot during his Senate confirmation hearing, saying it "keeps the Fed wedded to its forecasts longer than it should." Goldman Sachs economists expect Walsh will not submit a dot plot forecast. If Walsh declines to provide his own rate outlook, it would break a nearly 14-year Fed tradition. The market has long viewed the dot plot as one of the most important anchors for policy pricing, and any loosening of this anchor could itself trigger a repricing of expectations.
Why Walsh’s Communication Reform Could Reshape Market Pricing
Walsh’s intent to reform the Fed’s communications framework is a deeper variable that goes beyond this single rate decision. He advocates for fewer public remarks by officials, an overhaul of the Fed’s communication mechanisms, and has identified the SEP as part of the Fed’s "over-communication" problem.
The market implications of this reform direction are significant. While the dot plot’s predictive accuracy is "at best moderate," the market has long relied on it as a reference for the policy path. If Walsh gradually downplays or even abolishes the dot plot, the market will lose an important anchoring tool for expectations. Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, warned that if Walsh does not participate in the dot plot, investors may think he is "concealing a hawkish shift by the Committee to keep rates higher in response to inflation."
At the same time, Walsh faces complex real-world constraints. Although he is seen as dovish, high inflation, tariff shocks, and oil price pressures are pushing the FOMC’s overall stance more hawkish. In May, the US added 172,000 nonfarm jobs, far exceeding the expected 85,000, and the unemployment rate held at a relatively low 4.3%. Against a backdrop of resilient economic data, Walsh must respond to Trump’s calls for rate cuts while also facing the market’s growing expectation of rate hikes. How he communicates policy under this dual pressure will be the key for markets interpreting his policy stance.
Bitcoin’s Historical Performance During FOMC Meetings: Policy Cycles Amplify Volatility
Before analyzing the impact of this meeting, it’s worth reviewing Bitcoin’s historical performance during FOMC meetings.
Although Bitcoin is not a traditional interest rate-sensitive asset, its correlation with macro liquidity has increased as institutional capital flows in and spot ETFs become a key pricing force. The Fed’s views on rates, inflation, and economic growth often directly impact risk asset valuations, making the FOMC meeting one of the most important macro event windows for Bitcoin.
Looking back at recent cycles, Bitcoin’s reaction to the FOMC is not solely determined by whether rates are hiked or cut, but more by the gap between policy outcomes and market expectations. During the aggressive rate hike cycle in 2022, Bitcoin saw single-day swings of over 5% following FOMC decisions. In the policy transition phase from 2023 to 2024, changes in the dot plot and the Chair’s press conference often moved markets more than the rate decision itself.
This relationship has only grown stronger in 2025. Of the eight FOMC meetings that year, Bitcoin declined after seven of them. After the October 2025 meeting, it dropped about 30%; after the December meeting, about 10%. In 2026, it fell about 33% after the January meeting, 14% after March, and 28% after April. Across the five meetings from October 2025 to April 2026, the average decline was around 23%.
History shows that markets are not really trading the rate decision itself, but rather expectations for future liquidity conditions. When the policy path is repriced, Bitcoin typically exhibits greater volatility than US equity indices. For this FOMC meeting—Walsh’s first as Chair—the market’s focus is again not on whether rates remain unchanged, but on whether the policy framework signals a new directional shift.
Why Bitcoin Is Highly Sensitive to This FOMC Meeting
Given this historical backdrop, this FOMC meeting is especially significant for Bitcoin. Compared to recent years, the market is currently undergoing a rapid adjustment in macro policy expectations, and Walsh’s first FOMC meeting coincides with pronounced divisions over the future rate path. Any surprise signals from this meeting could be amplified by the crypto market.
Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, hitting a low of around $59,100 on June 5, 2026. As of June 17, Bitcoin was trading at $64,800 on the Gate platform, down 2.5% in 24 hours. The market is in a sensitive window ahead of the FOMC decision.
There are three main transmission channels through which this meeting could impact Bitcoin. First, a shift in the dot plot’s guidance would directly affect risk pricing—if the dot plot formally removes rate cut guidance, the two major narratives supporting crypto assets (liquidity release in an easing cycle and rate cuts boosting risk asset valuations) would face a fundamental rethink. Second, Walsh’s communications reform could undermine the market’s pricing anchor—if the dot plot’s importance diminishes, policy expectations become less certain, increasing volatility. Third, a repricing of multi-asset risk premiums—if the Fed sends a hawkish signal, rising risk-free rate expectations would compress the valuation space for risk assets.
How Expectation Gaps Drive Crypto Asset Repricing
The pricing of expectation gaps unfolds in two stages. The first is the expectation accumulation phase—by June 15, CME FedWatch showed about a 70% probability of a rate hike by year-end, while back in January, the market expected at least a 50% chance of two to three rate cuts this year. Much of this large expectation gap has already been partially priced in over the past two months.
The second stage is the confirmation and adjustment phase—when the June dot plot officially shows a baseline scenario of unchanged rates for the year, or even early signals of rate hikes, the market will complete its shift from a "rate cut logic" to a "rate hike window." This confirmation process could trigger a new round of risk asset repricing.
The crypto market also faces an additional structural challenge. In the first week of June, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a record net outflow of $3.4 billion. The Fear & Greed Index fell to 22, deep in the "extreme fear" zone. In this sentiment environment, any hawkish surprise could be magnified.
However, it’s important to note that the flip side of the expectation gap also exists. If the final dot plot shows rates staying unchanged for an extended period, with only a minor cut next year—rather than the further hikes the market fears—this could actually deliver a marginally dovish signal. This is the core uncertainty of this meeting—the more fully the market has priced in a hawkish outcome, the greater the rebound potential from a dovish surprise.
Conclusion
The June 2026 FOMC meeting is Walsh’s first policy meeting as Fed Chair. The rate decision itself holds little suspense—the market expects rates to remain at 3.50% to 3.75%—but changes in the policy statement’s language, potential shifts in the dot plot, and Walsh’s intent to reform the Fed’s communications framework together form three key variables that could impact global risk asset pricing.
History shows that FOMC meetings are often the most volatile macro event windows for Bitcoin. As institutional capital and spot ETFs increasingly drive market pricing, changes in monetary policy expectations are having a more direct impact on crypto asset valuations. Against this backdrop, a shift in the dot plot from rate cut guidance to unchanged or even rate hike expectations could trigger a new round of crypto asset repricing.
FAQ
Q: Will the Fed raise rates at this FOMC meeting?
The market overwhelmingly expects not. Both economists and the interest rate futures market indicate a probability of over 98% that the Fed will keep rates in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. Most institutions believe the Fed is more likely to adopt a "hawkish tone, wait-and-see action" strategy.
Q: Why is the dot plot important for the crypto market?
The dot plot reflects the collective expectations of Fed officials regarding the future path of interest rates, serving as a key reference for the market’s view of monetary policy. If the dot plot shifts from rate cut guidance to unchanged or even rate hike expectations, it will directly alter the market’s basic assumptions about the liquidity environment and risk asset valuations.
Q: What does it mean if Walsh does not submit a dot plot forecast?
Walsh has publicly criticized the dot plot for "keeping the Fed wedded to its forecasts longer than it should." If he refuses to submit his personal rate forecast, it would break a nearly 14-year Fed tradition. This could undermine market trust in the dot plot as a policy anchor and increase uncertainty around policy expectations.
Q: How has Bitcoin historically performed during FOMC meetings?
Historically, FOMC meetings have been among the most volatile macro event windows for Bitcoin. In 2025, Bitcoin declined after seven of eight FOMC meetings. Across the five meetings from October 2025 to April 2026, the average decline was about 23%.
Q: What might happen to Bitcoin after this meeting?
The direction will depend on the gap between actual results and market expectations. If the dot plot is more hawkish than expected, it could trigger further downside. If the shift is more moderate, it could actually deliver a marginally dovish signal. The more fully the market has priced in a hawkish outcome, the greater the rebound potential from a dovish surprise.
