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Fed Policy Shift: How the 3.8% Dot Plot, 77% Rate Hike Probability, and 3.3% Inflation Forecast Are Reshaping Market Expectations

Fed Policy Shift: How the 3.8% Dot Plot, 77% Rate Hike Probability, and 3.3% Inflation Forecast Are Reshaping Market Expectations

This article examines three key figures to break down the fundamental shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations and how this reversal is impacting the crypto market.

Blog Team06/26/2026

Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Pivot Meets the AI Capital Boom: How a $725 Billion Investment Bet Is Reshaping Bitcoin and Risk Assets

Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Pivot Meets the AI Capital Boom: How a $725 Billion Investment Bet Is Reshaping Bitcoin and Risk Assets

In June 2026, the Federal Reserve’s dot plot shifted from a consensus on rate cuts to expectations of rate hikes, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 4.5%. At the same time, the combined AI capital expenditures of the four major tech giants surpassed $700 billion. With rising interest rates and massive AI spending, which will buckle first?

Blog Team06/25/2026

Is the Rate Hike Cycle Making a Comeback? The Fed’s Hawkish Signals and the Revaluation of Crypto Assets

Is the Rate Hike Cycle Making a Comeback? The Fed’s Hawkish Signals and the Revaluation of Crypto Assets

The Federal Reserve’s June meeting sent a hawkish signal, with the dot plot shifting from a consensus on rate cuts to expectations of rate hikes. How might these rising rate expectations impact the valuation and liquidity of crypto assets?

Wash’s First FOMC Analysis: Rates Hold Steady, Dot Plot Turns Hawkish—How Will the Crypto Market Price It In?

Wash’s First FOMC Analysis: Rates Hold Steady, Dot Plot Turns Hawkish—How Will the Crypto Market Price It In?

Federal Reserve’s Waller makes his debut by keeping interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%. However, the Fed abandons forward guidance and omits the dot plot, with nine officials expecting rate hikes later this year. Explore the shift in policy approach and its implications for crypto asset pricing.

Blog Team06/18/2026

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Deep Dive into the June 2026 FOMC: How the Hawkish Shift Impacts Bitcoin, Gold, and the Nasdaq

Deep Dive into the June 2026 FOMC: How the Hawkish Shift Impacts Bitcoin, Gold, and the Nasdaq

In June 2026, the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged, but the dot plot unexpectedly shifted toward a rate hike outlook. This article reviews the historical reaction patterns of Bitcoin, gold, US Treasuries, and the Nasdaq to past Federal Reserve decisions. We then analyze the potential asset price dynamics and trading strategies following Kevin Warsh’s debut as Fed Chair.

Blog Team06/18/2026

Beneath the Surface of Steady Interest Rates: What Does Waller’s First FOMC Statement Mean for Crypto Assets?

Beneath the Surface of Steady Interest Rates: What Does Waller’s First FOMC Statement Mean for Crypto Assets?

The Federal Reserve’s June FOMC meeting is about to begin, with Waller presiding for the first time. Markets expect interest rates to remain unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. The dot plot may remove guidance for rate cuts, putting Bitcoin under renewed pressure as macro policy expectations are repriced.

Blog Team06/17/2026

How Will the Crypto Market Respond to the June FOMC Decision and the Bank of Japan's Rate Hike?

How Will the Crypto Market Respond to the June FOMC Decision and the Bank of Japan's Rate Hike?

Federal Reserve’s June FOMC Dot Plot May Drop Rate Cut Guidance; Bank of Japan Expected to Raise Rates to 1%—Highest in 31 Years. How Will the Crypto Market Price In Liquidity Tightening Expectations?

Blog Team06/15/2026

Interest Rate Cut Expectations Vanish as Odds of a Hike Rise: Crypto Market Repricing Amid FOMC Dot Plot Shift

Interest Rate Cut Expectations Vanish as Odds of a Hike Rise: Crypto Market Repricing Amid FOMC Dot Plot Shift

Rate cut expectations have vanished, with the probability of a rate hike in December rising to 70%. Ahead of the June FOMC meeting, market expectations are that the dot plot will shift from signaling rate cuts to indicating rates will remain unchanged.

Blog Team06/15/2026

Kevin Warsh’s Fed Era: Refining the Average Inflation Framework, Dot Plot Reforms, and a 2026 Interest Rate Outlook

Kevin Warsh’s Fed Era: Refining the Average Inflation Framework, Dot Plot Reforms, and a 2026 Interest Rate Outlook

After Kevin Warsh became Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he favored the trimmed mean method for measuring inflation (core PCE at 3.3% versus trimmed mean at 2.3%). He also opposed the use of dot plots and frequent press conferences.

Blog Team06/08/2026