Fourfold inducements for Bitcoin to fall below $90,000: Leverage liquidations and ETF bleed resonance

In mid to late November 2025, the Bitcoin price fell below the key support of 90,000 USD, with a 19% decline over 30 days, turning the annual return to a negative 4.3%. This drop was driven by four major factors: a sudden drop in expectations for Fed rate cuts, an outflow of 2.2 billion USD from ETFs in a single week, a monthly liquidation of 8.5 billion USD in long positions crushing the market, and a technical sell-off triggered by the breach of the psychological barrier of 100,000 USD. Analysts point out that if the support at 88,000 USD fails, the next target could dip to the April low of 77,000 USD.

Reversal of Interest Rate Cut Expectations: Macro Policy Shift Suppresses Risk Assets

The Fed's November 2025 meeting released a strong signal, suppressing the probability of a rate cut in December from 91% prior to the meeting to 34%, becoming the trigger for this round of dumping. This shift in expectation stems from the resilience of the labor market and sticky inflation, forcing traders to reprice the risk-free yield curve. Historical data shows that Bitcoin, as a zero-yield asset, is extremely sensitive to changes in real interest rates—when rate cut expectations are delayed, the opportunity cost of holding cryptocurrencies rises significantly. A more profound impact is that high interest rates may trigger concerns about economic slowdown, weakening companies' willingness to allocate cryptocurrencies as inventory assets. Although a third of the market still expects a 25 basis point rate cut, the dot plot adjustment has been sufficient to trigger quantitative funds and macro strategists to reduce high-risk positions.

Bitcoin ETF funds outflow hits record: Structural buying disappears

The Bitcoin spot ETF has experienced the most severe capital outflow since its launch in January. According to Farside Investors, the net outflow over the past five days has reached 2.2 billion dollars, accounting for less than 2% of the overall ETF size, but enough to change the short-term supply-demand balance. This outflow directly translates into spot selling pressure through the authorized participant mechanism: funds need to sell Bitcoin or close hedging positions to cope with redemptions, and market makers distribute sell orders throughout the trading day to control risk.

It is particularly noteworthy that BlackRock's IBIT experienced a monthly outflow of 1.6 billion USD, exceeding the total fund outflows of any previous period. This structural buying pressure disappearance coincides with the continuous selling pressure from miners producing 450 BTC per day, leading the market to independently absorb a daily net supply of about 50 million USD.

Bitcoin falls below the key data line of 90000 US dollars

• 30-day fall: 19%
• ETF 5-day net outflow: 2.2 billion USD
• Total Long Positions Liquidation in November: 8.5 billion USD
• Fear and Greed Index: Lowest since April
• Change in Interest Rate Cut Probability: 91% → 34%
• Key technical levels: support at 88000 dollars, resistance at 95000 dollars

Leverage Collapse Chain Reaction: $8.5 Billion Long Positions Wiped Out

The derivatives market has played a magnifying role in this round of fall. Since November, the total amount of leveraged long positions liquidated across all exchanges has reached 8.5 billion USD, which is only half of the amount on the flash crash day of October 10, but the continuous liquidation pressure has prevented the accumulation of rebound momentum. This wave of liquidations stems from the excessively optimistic leverage buildup after the market broke through 120,000 USD—traders bet on continued rises through a combination of perpetual contracts and futures options, and when the price fell below 98,000 USD, layer upon layer of stop-loss orders were triggered, creating a chain reaction.

Unlike before, the funding rates during this liquidation process remained in the positive range, indicating that new long positions are still attempting to bottom-fish. However, this “counter-trend accumulation” behavior has instead prolonged the clearing cycle. From the position structure, activities on regulated platforms like CME are thin, while open positions on mainstream exchanges have surged, reflecting a significant divergence in market outlook between institutions and retail traders.

Technical Breakdown: The Symbolic Significance of Losing the Psychological Threshold of 100,000 Dollars

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin losing the $100,000 level has significant psychological impact. This price point is not only a psychological support based on whole numbers but also a key anchor point of the ascending trend line for 2025. The daily chart shows that the next support level is at $88,000 (the lower limit of the recent fluctuation range); if it effectively falls below, it may trigger a collective shift in trend-following strategies, with the target directly aimed at the April low of $77,000.

It is worth noting that the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to its lowest level since April, which is usually seen as a contrarian indicator, but must be confirmed by a decrease in trading volume and the normalization of derivatives positions to confirm a bottom. In the current market environment, Bitcoin needs to recover $95,000 to reverse the short-term bearish structure, which requires either an ETF outflow reversal or favorable macroeconomic factors.

Market Insights from the Deleveraging Process

This pullback is essentially a manifestation of the market's healthy deleveraging process. Since early 2025, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has soared from $2.5 trillion to $4.3 trillion, with excessive leverage and narrative bubbles accumulating significant risks. Although the current cleansing is painful, it lays a more solid foundation for the next round of increases. Investors should focus on fundamental indicators such as Entity Net Growth and the ratio of long-term holders' positions, rather than overinterpreting short-term price fluctuations. If the Fed unexpectedly cuts interest rates in December, or if Bitcoin ETFs regain net inflows, the current weakness could quickly reverse, but a more likely scenario is that it will take several weeks to consolidate and build a bottom.

FAQ

1. What to do after Bitcoin falls below $90,000?

Short-term investors can observe the effectiveness of the 88000 USD support, while long-term holders should consider dollar-cost averaging to spread the cost and avoid leverage operations.

2. What is the current value of the Fear and Greed Index?

Has dropped to the extreme fear zone below 20, at the level when Bitcoin bottomed at 77,000 dollars in April.

3. Will the selling pressure from miners exacerbate the fall?

Daily production of 450 BTC, approximately 40 million USD in selling pressure, but if prices continue to be sluggish, some high-cost miners may passively reduce their holdings.

4. Will altcoins follow Bitcoin's rebound?

In the early rebound, Bitcoin usually leads, and once it stabilizes at key levels, high-quality altcoins may experience excess returns.

5. What are the similarities and differences between this round of fall and the 2024 cycle?

The similarity lies in being driven by macro policies and leverage cleanup, while the difference is that this time the participation of institutions is higher, which may extend the bottom building time.