After the big pump of Nvidia, what is the actual possible loss amount for the short-selling prototype Michael Burry?

The character Michael Burry, who the movie “The Big Short” is based on, became famous for accurately predicting the collapse of the real estate market in 2008. He was reported by the media to have shorted NVIDIA ( and Palantir, causing a wave of panic. According to quarterly regulatory filings released earlier by Burry, his hedge fund company Scion Asset Management purchased put options ) on these two tech companies; a type of options contract that allows the buyer ( Burry to profit when the stock price falls. NVIDIA (NVDA)) just released its Q3 financial report, and the stock actually rose on that day. So, how much could Michael Burry potentially lose from buying put options? Burry's hedge fund company Scion Asset Management is required to file a 13F document with the SEC, disclosing its holdings of publicly traded stocks and options. These documents will provide details about the specific quantities and values of the options he holds. The following is an analysis based on public data and news, purely market research, and not any investment advice.

The basic concept of put options 看跌期權

Put options are a type of options contract in which the buyer has the right to sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price (strike price) upon expiration of the option. This means that if Michael Burry buys put options on Nvidia, he expects Nvidia's stock price to fall. If the stock price falls, the value of the option increases, allowing Michael Burry to profit. Conversely, if the stock price rises, the value of the option decreases, and he would face a loss.

The important factors affecting options premium.

Strike Price

Expiration Date

Moneyness ( How far in and out of the money ) The intrinsic value of options

Implied volatility 隱含波動率

After the big pump of NVIDIA, the actual possible loss amount for Michael Burry.

It is unclear how much money Michael Burry actually lost on the NVIDIA (NVDA) put options, as the public filing (13F) reports the Notional Exposure ) nominal value (, rather than the options premium he paid. According to the 13F filing submitted by Scion in the third quarter of 2025, Burry held put options on 1 million shares of NVIDIA stock (equivalent to 1 million shares), with the nominal value of the put options )Put Options( amounting to approximately $186.58 million.

According to the positions held by Barry in the 13F filing, after the significant rise of NVIDIA, the following is Michael Burry's actual possible loss amount estimation method:

It is known that Barry holds 1,000,000 shares equivalent of NVIDIA's put options.

When Berry filed the 13F document, the stock price of NVIDIA ) was approximately $186.58 per share.

1,000,000 shares × price = Notional Amount); the Notional Amount is approximately 186.58 million USD ( based on NVIDIA's stock price )USD estimated (

Note: Nominal amount ≠ Actual investment cost, 13F will not disclose options contract cost (Premium), so the outside world cannot know how much he actually paid.

However, according to the common options cost estimation of institutional investors, the range in which he may actually incur losses is as follows:

Low-cost assumption (1% Premium options fee )

Actual investment: approximately 1.87 million USD

If NVIDIA pumps and the options go to zero → Maximum loss ≈ 1.87M

Medium cost assumption (3% Premium options fee, most common expense)

Actual investment: approximately 5.6 million USD

If NVIDIA pumps → Maximum loss ≈ 5.6M

Higher cost assumption (5% Premium Options fee)

Actual investment: approximately 9.3 million USD

If NVIDIA pumps → Maximum loss ≈ 9.3M

The most important point

He doesn't have to compensate up to 186 million dollars.

That is the notional amount of the options contract, not the cost.

His maximum possible loss is between approximately 2 million to 9 million dollars.

If he did not close his position during the large pump of NVIDIA, and the options value went to zero, the actual loss would fall between 2–9 million dollars, which completely aligns with the scale of funds and leverage commonly used by large institutions when shorting options.

Why the exact loss cannot be estimated

Nominal value ≠ Actual payment cost: $186.6 million is not the amount actually spent by Barry, but rather the “underlying asset value” of the put options. When he exercises the option (Strike$186 , the key to determining the actual amount he pays (and potentially loses) is the option premium, which depends on: the strike price )Strike), and additionally, the implied volatility at the expiration date. The option premium (the amount he actually invested) was not publicly disclosed in the 13F filing.

What is the worst-case scenario that may occur with Berry?

For Berry, the worst-case scenario is if the put options expire worthless (i.e., Nvidia's stock price does not fall below the strike price), his maximum loss would only be the premium paid for the options. This could be just a small portion of the notional value of $186 million, depending on the structure of the options.

If NVIDIA's stock price falls: If the stock price drops below his strike price, the value of his put options may rise significantly, depending on the level of in-the-money of the options. However, similarly, his earnings will depend on the difference between the stock price and the strike price, as well as the number of contracts he holds.

Barry has not been optimistic about NVIDIA in the past. Analysts at Benzinga have pointed out that if NVIDIA's stock price rebounds strongly and Barry does not close his positions, the profitability of these put options may decrease and could even become worthless. Since he used leveraged options, his nominal risk exposure is large, but that does not mean he will lose $186 million in cash; he may only lose a small portion of the options premium.

Michael Burry did not lose $186 million in cash just because of a notional risk exposure of $186 million; his actual risk (maximum loss) is limited to the amount he paid for these put options (the option premium), which the public cannot ascertain from public documents. Without understanding the option premium, it is impossible to know his losses to date unless he or his company discloses more information.

After the big surge of Nvidia, what is the actual possible loss amount for the shorting prototype figure Michael Burry? First appeared in Chain News ABMedia.