This Week's Outlook: BTC Returns to 86,000, Trump Faces Off Against Major Short Positions, Macro Shock Begins to Settle

Written by: Oliver, Mars Finance

( November 24, 2025 - November 30, 2025 )

Last week, the global market underwent a stress test dominated by macro panic. The delayed impact of September's non-farm payroll data combined with hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve led investors to mistakenly believe that the AI bubble was about to burst. However, as institutions like CITIC Securities pointed out that the decline was actually due to profit-taking rather than a deterioration in the fundamentals, and with timely dovish reassurances from New York Fed President Williams over the weekend, market sentiment quickly rebounded in Monday's early trading.

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded strongly this morning, briefly breaking through $88,000, and is currently reported at $86,861. This marks a shift in the market from pure fear to a new game of speculation.

This week, although the trading days are shortened due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, the narrative density is extremely high. We will witness a top-level showdown between bulls and bears: on one side, Trump launches a national-level AI new deal to create a new era, while on the other side, major short-seller Michael Burry vows to expose the profit black holes of tech giants. Coupled with the last PCE inflation data before the Federal Reserve enters its quiet period, this week is destined to be a direct confrontation between policy bullishness and valuation bearishness.

Core Highlight 1: The Ice and Fire of AI Narratives - Trump's New Policy vs The Big Short's Short Selling

This week, the AI and technology sector will no longer be calm, as two completely opposing forces will collide fiercely at the beginning of the week.

Bullish Nuclear Bomb (Monday): Trump Signs Genesis Mission Trump plans to sign this AI new deal, likened to the Manhattan Project, at the White House. This is not just an executive order, but also a signal that the United States is elevating computing power to the level of national strategic security.

Core logic: Utilize national power to remove the bottlenecks of computing power and regulatory shackles in AI development.

Market Impact: This is a long-term and significant positive for AI infrastructure, chip manufacturing, and the DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure) sector in the cryptocurrency field. It suggests a substantial abundance of electricity and computing power resources, providing a strong boost for investors who are concerned about computing power bottlenecks.

Short-Selling Sniper (Tuesday): Big Short Michael Burry Exposes Depreciation Scandal. Michael Burry, who shorted subprime mortgages in 2008, has once again positioned himself against the market. He accuses tech giants of inflating profits by underestimating depreciation (extending server lifespans), amounting to as much as $176 billion, specifically naming Meta and Oracle.

In-depth analysis: This is not a simple financial question, but a challenge to the sustainability of the AI business model. If the market adopts Burry's logic, that rapid hardware iteration leads to existing asset values dropping to zero, then the high valuation logic of tech stocks will face reevaluation.

Crypto Perspective: If the Nasdaq experiences a pullback due to Burry's short report, Bitcoin, as a high beta asset, is bound to be affected. However, if the market ignores this news (believing that cash flow remains strong), the rebound will be even more intense.

Key Point 2: The Final Macro Barrier - PCE Data and the Geopolitical Ultimatum

Beijing time, November 26 (Wednesday): U.S. Core PCE Price Index for October, Revised Q3 GDP.

Beijing time, November 27 (Thursday): The deadline given by Trump for the Russia-Ukraine ultimatum.

1. Final confirmation of the interest rate cut in December. New York Fed Chairman Williams hinted over the weekend that a December rate cut is appropriate, directly pulling back the market's expected probability of a rate cut to seventy percent. Since the Federal Reserve will enter a quiet period this Friday (29th), Wednesday's PCE data will be the final judgment in this round of game.

Scenario Simulation:

In line with expectations (moderate): As long as PCE does not show significant acceleration, Williams' dovish remarks will set the official tone. The market will confirm a 25bps rate cut in December, the dollar index will retreat, which is favorable for BTC to hit $90,000.

Above expectations (overheating): This will hit Williams hard, triggering a dramatic reversal of expectations. Considering the worsening liquidity before Thanksgiving, this could lead to a preemptive sell-off in the market before the holiday.

2. The Geopolitical Truth Behind the Falsehoods Trump claims that November 27 is the deadline for Ukraine to accept the 28-point peace plan.

Potential risks: If a peace agreement is reached, it will be viewed as a significant release of global geopolitical risks, favorable for risk assets; if negotiations break down or the situation escalates, the safe-haven properties of gold and Bitcoin may be activated again, but will also be accompanied by a surge in market volatility.

Other noteworthy events

Tuesday: Alibaba's earnings report. As a bellwether for Chinese stocks, its performance will validate the resilience of Chinese e-commerce amid macro headwinds.

Thursday: U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving. Be cautious of liquidity exhaustion on Wednesday evening (during U.S. market hours) due to the approaching holiday, which often amplifies price volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Weekly Summary and Outlook

In summary, the main theme of the market this week is repair and speculation.

Williams' speech has put an end to last week's macro panic, and the best proof is that BTC has returned above $86,000. The focus now shifts to a deeper ideological battle: should we believe in the AI dreams brought by Trump's Genesis Plan, or worry about the earnings report bubble in the eyes of the big shorts?

For crypto investors, the most dangerous macro moment seems to have passed (unless the PCE report goes off the rails). Attention should be paid to this week’s operational rhythm: at the beginning of the week, focus on the policy dividends from the AI narrative, mid-week keep a close eye on the PCE data release, and at the end of the week, be wary of the pin risk under low liquidity during Thanksgiving.