#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Bitcoin has increased by 10%, now with declining volume, is the next move "up" or "down"?

On March 29, 2026, Bitcoin was priced at around 66.7K. And today, April 12, Bitcoin has reached 73K, nearly a 10% increase, with a large influx of positive flow into Bitcoin ETFs. Since it has risen, it indicates that market liquidity remains healthy. Whether institutional investors or individuals, their understanding and perception of Bitcoin are strengthening. Of course, this doesn't mean Bitcoin won't fall, because we all know a recurring story: new funds and newcomers are attracted by Bitcoin's narrative, and during subsequent volatility, some less committed participants will be shaken out, leaving the resilient to continue in the market.

Additionally, looking at recent trends, it's quite interesting. The trading volume in the Bitcoin market clearly shows a gradual decrease in early April. The price was consolidating sideways, then suddenly surged, pushing the price to 72K. Recently, Bitcoin's trading volume has shown a similar pattern—volume decreasing again, but the price is trending upward amid consolidation.

From this data, we can confirm that Bitcoin's current selling pressure is very low. It's not that no one is buying; rather, there are fewer sellers. The reason for fewer sellers could be either that selling pressure has shifted—meaning OTC off-market trading—or that long-term investors are unwilling to sell. At this point, don't ask whether the next move will be up or down; we can analyze the probabilities in advance to prepare psychologically.

Decreasing volume with rising prices isn't dangerous, but it does suggest larger volatility is brewing. No volume, no rise → demand disappears → higher probability of decline (less likely to rise, but it happened in early April).
No volume, still rising → supply is exhausted → once volume picks up, volatility will amplify.

So, we are at a critical juncture. A sharp surge is possible, and data can support that; a sharp decline is also possible, with supporting data.

Scenario A: Sudden surge, strong rally. If prices suddenly spike again, it will inevitably require higher trading volume. At that point, prices will likely reach the 74K-78K range but won't break through 80K (more on that later).
Scenario B: Continued sideways consolidation. In fact, entering a sideways phase could be beneficial, allowing slight fluctuations to wash out impatient or unstable positions, building support for the next rally.
Scenario C: Sudden plunge. This scenario is quite probable, considering the current international situation. Unexpected conflicts or failed negotiations could trigger panic and risk aversion. Of course, it’s also possible that whales continue to liquidate, and if market buying strength weakens, a decline becomes inevitable.

For retail investors, the real task is never to predict the next candle but to develop strategies to cope with uncertainty.

In this phase of "volume contraction and volatility at a critical point," the most common reaction is emotional trading. Seeing a 10% rise in half a month might make you eager to chase the high, but a drop can trigger panic, leading to panic selling.

Bitcoin is unlikely to break through 80K because that level is the cost basis for short-term holders. Once it approaches this level, there will be greater selling pressure. Whether whales or institutions, they won't easily give up this opportunity. Short-term holders are those who hold for less than 155 days. Patience, patience, and ignore the noise.

The market never rewards you just because you understand it. It only gives you a way out when you're "ready." Instead of focusing on bullish or bearish predictions, treat this market as a multiple-choice question: when volatility hits, are you the one being shaken out or the one staying? The answer isn't in the market but in your position, rhythm, and cognition.