Recently, while looking at some projects, I noticed that many people judge whether a project is “cheap” or “not cheap” just by its market cap, but they ignore a very crucial metric—fully diluted valuation (FDV). Once you understand this, it can help you avoid a lot of investment traps.
In simple terms, FDV is the total valuation of a project assuming that all tokens are in circulation. Market cap, on the other hand, only looks at how many tokens are currently tradable. If the gap between the two is large, it usually means that a large number of tokens will be released in the future, which could have a quite significant impact on the token price.
Here’s an example to make it clear. Bitcoin’s current price is $80.72K, with a total supply of 21 million coins, and an FDV of about $1.616 trillion. That figure looks enormous, but because Bitcoin’s supply is fixed, its market cap and FDV are almost the same, indicating there isn’t much dilution risk in the future. By contrast, NEXO is currently priced at $0.90, with a total supply of 1 billion coins, and an FDV of $895 million. At this point, you should ask: why does the market value it this way? Is there something I haven’t noticed?
I think the most useful part of FDV is that it helps you clearly see a project’s “true potential.” Many projects appear to have a low market cap, but if FDV is far higher than market cap, it suggests that a large number of tokens are waiting to be released in the future. If those tokens get dumped all at once, the value of the tokens you currently hold could be significantly diluted.
Take XRP as an example. Ripple has a token vesting/allocation plan, and tokens are released gradually. Tezos also continuously releases new tokens through staking rewards. These mechanisms themselves aren’t a problem, but you need to understand how they will affect future prices. XRP is currently $1.41, yet its FDV will be far higher than the current market cap because a large number of tokens are still not in circulation.
So when I look at FDV, I usually consider a few scenarios:
- Market cap is low, FDV is high — The project may look cheap right now, but you should watch out for future dilution risk. Sometimes these projects are treasures; sometimes they’re traps.
- Market cap is high, FDV is also high — It suggests the project is mature and the market has confidence in its future growth. Bitcoin is an example of this.
- Market cap is high, FDV is low — The project may already be priced quite high, leaving limited upside room.
- Market cap is low, FDV is also low — New projects or difficult-to-execute projects, with very high risk.
But I want to emphasize one thing: FDV cannot be used alone to make investment decisions. It’s only a reference metric. More importantly, you should look at factors like the token release schedule, market competitiveness, and technological progress. Some projects may have a low FDV, but if a large amount of tokens is released in the short term, the risk is still not small.
Honestly, a lot of people are misled by “low market cap” while failing to see the FDV behind it. That’s also why some projects rise fast—and fall just as fast. Next time you look at a project, try comparing FDV with market cap; you’ll likely find plenty of interesting things.