Every crypto bull market comes with the same question: when do altcoins finally moon? The pattern feels predictable—Bitcoin rallies, stabilizes, then capital rotates into alts. But are we really about to see another altseason, or is this cycle different?
Let’s cut through the hype and look at what actually matters.
The Historical Setup: Bitcoin Halving → 6-9 Month Lag
The data doesn’t lie. After each Bitcoin halving, altseason kicks in with a predictable delay:
2017 Cycle: Halving July 2016 → BTC hit $20K Dec 2017 → Altseason exploded early 2018 (BTC dominance crashed 96% → 36%)
2021 Cycle: Halving May 2020 → BTC hit $69K Nov 2021 → Altseason ran hot early 2021 + late 2021 (BTC dominance fell 73% → 39%)
2024-2025?: Halving April 2024 → BTC potentially $100K+ in late 2024/early 2025 → Altseason window: Q4 2024 - Q2 2025
The pattern holds. But timing is everything.
Bitcoin Dominance: The Real Trigger
Forget FOMO. Watch BTC.D instead.
Right now, Bitcoin dominance sits around 53%. Here’s what to watch:
BTC.D > 55%: Still in Bitcoin’s phase, alts underperforming
BTC.D 50-55%: Early rotation beginning, watch for confirmation
BTC.D < 50%: Altseason heating up, capital flowing out of BTC
In 2017-2018, BTC.D bottomed at 36%. In 2021, it hit 39%. A drop below 50% in late Q4 or Q1 2025 would be the green light.
5 Signs to Watch (Not Just Hype)
1. ETH/BTC Ratio Explosion
Ethereum leads altseasons. When ETH/BTC starts breaking out of its range, smart money is already rotating. This is a better signal than random tweets.
2. Layer-1 Outperformance
Solana, Cardano, Polkadot, Avax—these typically run 3-5x harder than Bitcoin during altseason. If these start gapping up while BTC consolidates, altseason is live.
3. Meme Coins Getting Parabolic
This sounds silly, but it’s actually a solid indicator. When PEPE, FLOKI, and random new memes start doing 5x-10x in weeks, retail FOMO has entered the chat. Altseason isn’t far behind.
During altseason, money doesn’t just flow into top 10 coins—it floods into micro-caps. If you’re seeing 50x+ runs on unknown projects, that’s peak season activity.
5. Mainstream Media Noise
When Bloomberg, CNBC, and mainstream outlets start covering crypto again (beyond “crypto crash” stories), retail traders are waking up. Altseason thrives on retail FOMO.
The Timeline That Actually Matters
Now (Late 2024): Bitcoin likely reaching $100K+, BTC dominance still elevated
Q4 2024 - Q1 2025: BTC consolidation phase, capital starts rotating into alts
Q1-Q2 2025: Altseason in full swing, expect 100x-1000x runs on smaller alts
Q3 2025: Peak hype, most dangerous period for bag holders
Real Talk: Preparation Strategy
Diversify strategically – Mix mega-cap alts (ETH, SOL) with smaller runners for exponential upside, but don’t be reckless.
Monitor BTC.D daily – More reliable than any influencer prediction. When it breaks 50%, pay attention.
Track Layer-1 momentum – These outpace BTC during alt runs. If SOL and ADA are lagging, altseason hasn’t truly started.
Have an exit plan – Altseasons are brutal. Lock profits at key resistance levels. The coins that moon 100x+ often crash just as hard.
Watch meme coin volume – It’s a leading indicator. Explosive meme activity = retail money flooding in = peak season approaching.
The Bottom Line
Altseason 2025 is probably coming. The setup is there—halving done, Bitcoin likely to peak soon, capital rotation on schedule. But when it starts is everything. BTC.D dropping below 50% is your real signal, not calendar dates or wishful thinking.
Stay sharp. The opportunities will be massive, but so will the risks.
アルトシーズン2025：本当にこれが違うのか？データに基づく分析
Every crypto bull market comes with the same question: when do altcoins finally moon? The pattern feels predictable—Bitcoin rallies, stabilizes, then capital rotates into alts. But are we really about to see another altseason, or is this cycle different?
Let’s cut through the hype and look at what actually matters.
The Historical Setup: Bitcoin Halving → 6-9 Month Lag
The data doesn’t lie. After each Bitcoin halving, altseason kicks in with a predictable delay:
2017 Cycle: Halving July 2016 → BTC hit $20K Dec 2017 → Altseason exploded early 2018 (BTC dominance crashed 96% → 36%)
2021 Cycle: Halving May 2020 → BTC hit $69K Nov 2021 → Altseason ran hot early 2021 + late 2021 (BTC dominance fell 73% → 39%)
2024-2025?: Halving April 2024 → BTC potentially $100K+ in late 2024/early 2025 → Altseason window: Q4 2024 - Q2 2025
The pattern holds. But timing is everything.
Bitcoin Dominance: The Real Trigger
Forget FOMO. Watch BTC.D instead.
Right now, Bitcoin dominance sits around 53%. Here’s what to watch:
In 2017-2018, BTC.D bottomed at 36%. In 2021, it hit 39%. A drop below 50% in late Q4 or Q1 2025 would be the green light.
5 Signs to Watch (Not Just Hype)
1. ETH/BTC Ratio Explosion
Ethereum leads altseasons. When ETH/BTC starts breaking out of its range, smart money is already rotating. This is a better signal than random tweets.
2. Layer-1 Outperformance
Solana, Cardano, Polkadot, Avax—these typically run 3-5x harder than Bitcoin during altseason. If these start gapping up while BTC consolidates, altseason is live.
3. Meme Coins Getting Parabolic
This sounds silly, but it’s actually a solid indicator. When PEPE, FLOKI, and random new memes start doing 5x-10x in weeks, retail FOMO has entered the chat. Altseason isn’t far behind.
4. Small-Cap Alts (Under $100M Market Cap) Gaining Traction
During altseason, money doesn’t just flow into top 10 coins—it floods into micro-caps. If you’re seeing 50x+ runs on unknown projects, that’s peak season activity.
5. Mainstream Media Noise
When Bloomberg, CNBC, and mainstream outlets start covering crypto again (beyond “crypto crash” stories), retail traders are waking up. Altseason thrives on retail FOMO.
The Timeline That Actually Matters
Real Talk: Preparation Strategy
Diversify strategically – Mix mega-cap alts (ETH, SOL) with smaller runners for exponential upside, but don’t be reckless.
Monitor BTC.D daily – More reliable than any influencer prediction. When it breaks 50%, pay attention.
Track Layer-1 momentum – These outpace BTC during alt runs. If SOL and ADA are lagging, altseason hasn’t truly started.
Have an exit plan – Altseasons are brutal. Lock profits at key resistance levels. The coins that moon 100x+ often crash just as hard.
Watch meme coin volume – It’s a leading indicator. Explosive meme activity = retail money flooding in = peak season approaching.
The Bottom Line
Altseason 2025 is probably coming. The setup is there—halving done, Bitcoin likely to peak soon, capital rotation on schedule. But when it starts is everything. BTC.D dropping below 50% is your real signal, not calendar dates or wishful thinking.
Stay sharp. The opportunities will be massive, but so will the risks.