10x Research Targets Bitcoin at $55,000 Amid ETF Outflows, Polymarket Prices 64% Probability

According to 10x Research's report published June 23, Bitcoin is expected to test $55,000 as the cycle low within a timing window spanning late August to October 2026. The price target, framed as a stress-test floor representing genuine value, is based on USD strength indicators, global liquidity models, onchain cost-basis data, and historical cycle patterns.

Bitcoin traded below $61,000 on June 24, approximately 51% below its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000. The firm attributes current downside pressure primarily to cumulative spot Bitcoin ETF outflows running into the billions since elevated inflation readings earlier this year, rather than corporate treasury selling. Prediction markets align with the outlook: Polymarket traders are pricing a 64% probability Bitcoin reaches $55,000 or lower before 2027, while Kalshi shows similar 65% odds by year-end.