Bitcoin Price Prediction: The lightning crash did not trigger a panic sell-off, with the strong support at $110,000 driving a rebound.

After the lightning crash, investors did not panic and withdraw, and the number of open contracts decreased by 11.5%, releasing leveraged risks. The technical indicators show a cumulative signal of $110,000, and the battle for recovery at $120,000 is about to begin.

Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows Reveal the Truth: Liquidation Rather Than Surrender

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 6.6% in the past 7 days, with Friday's tariff panic causing the price to plummet from its historical high of below $120,000. However, the latest data from Farside Investors shows that on Monday, the net outflow of Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) was only $326 million, a figure that is far below the market's expectations of a massive redemption wave.

The more critical comparison is: As of last Thursday, BTC ETF has seen a net inflow for 9 consecutive days, accumulating nearly $6 billion in new funds. The slight outflow on Monday accounted for only 5.4% of this scale, indicating that institutional investors have not changed their holding strategies due to short-term fluctuations. This “resilience” confirms that what happened last week was a cascading liquidation response in the derivatives market, rather than a bullish capitulation by spot holders.

Currently, the BTC price hovers around the $110,000 range, maintaining a 21% increase year-to-date, closely following Ethereum's 24% increase. Despite the short-term volatility, the macro trend has yet to reverse.

Close Position contracts plummet 11.5%: Leverage liquidation paves the way for a rebound

(Source: Coinglass)

· Healthy Reset of the Derivatives Market

CoinGlass data shows that the open interest (OI) of Bitcoin has significantly decreased by 11.5% from Friday's peak, currently at 656,840 BTC, having once reached a low of 624,400 BTC. The OI measured in BTC can more accurately reflect the market leverage level, excluding the interference of price fluctuations on USD-denominated indicators.

This sharp decline indicates that a large number of high-leverage positions were forcibly Close Position on Friday, and overly optimistic speculators have exited the market. Historical experience shows that a significant drop in OI is often accompanied by the formation of a market bottom, as the remaining participants are mostly low-leverage or unleveraged long-term holders.

Although OI has gradually risen from its low point, the recovery speed is slow, indicating that traders have not returned to the market on a large scale. This “hesitation” is actually beneficial for price stability—newly entering funds are more cautious and are less likely to trigger a chain liquidation again.

· Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Variables

The Fear and Greed Index is currently at 42, in the “Fear” zone, reflecting that investors have taken a cautious stance following last week's events. This reading is below the neutral value of 50 but far from the extreme fear zone below 20.

Greater uncertainty comes from the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Trump's measures to impose a 100% tariff on China may raise future inflation expectations, and the market is concerned that the Federal Reserve may delay the planned 25 basis point rate cut this month. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not make clear comments on future interest rate decisions during his speech at the National Association for Business Economics meeting in Philadelphia on Tuesday, and this ambiguous attitude increases the risk of short-term volatility.

If the Federal Reserve really delays interest rate cuts, the cryptocurrency market may face an immediate impact, as the current market pricing has fully reflected the expectations of rate cuts. However, as long as the Federal Reserve does not turn to raising interest rates, this impact may be limited to short-term sentiment and will not change the medium to long-term trend.

Technical Analysis: 110,000 USD Builds a Strong Defense Line

(Source: Trading View)

· Triple Support Convergence Point

BTC is currently receiving strong support at the key demand zone of $110,000, where three technical elements converge:

Uptrend Line: This is the third time this trend line has been touched, and the price has shown a rapid rebound after the previous two touches. Technical analysis theory holds that the more times a trend line is tested, the stronger its validity.

Horizontal Support Level: $110,000 has acted as a resistance level multiple times blocking the price from moving upward in mid-March, and after breaking through, it naturally becomes an important support. This “resistance turned support” phenomenon is one of the most reliable signals in technical analysis.

Volume Confirmation: The trading volume in this area has consistently surpassed the 14-day moving average over the past few days, indicating significant buying interest. High trading volume combined with price stabilization usually suggests that “smart money” is accumulating.

· Rebound Path and Target Position

Based on the current technical structure, BTC has a high probability of a strong rebound:

First Target: $120,000 area. This was the short-term support before Friday's plunge and has now turned into psychological resistance. Reclaiming this position will reverse the market's short-term pessimism.

Second Target: $130,000. If the bullish momentum strengthens, the price may challenge the $130,000 area near previous highs. A breakthrough at this position will confirm that the bullish trend has fully resumed.

The only risk lies in a black swan event similar to Trump's “Truth Social” post hitting the market again on Friday. However, from a probability perspective, the likelihood of consecutive policy shocks of the same magnitude occurring within two weeks is relatively low.

Bitcoin Today's News: Accumulation Signals Outweigh Panic Selling

Based on the comprehensive analysis of ETF capital flows, changes in open contracts, and technical structure, the current market shows a “healthy state after painful cleansing”: speculative bubbles have been squeezed out, institutional holdings are stable, and technical support is clear. This combination historically often signifies the beginning of a mid-term rebound.

Last Friday's plunge seemed more like a “rapid deleveraging” rather than a trend reversal. For investors with a higher risk tolerance, the $110,000 area may provide a rare entry window.