Data: BTC short-term holders capitulation, on-chain data shows panic selling nearing its end.

According to ChainCatcher news and CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin is experiencing the most severe capitulation phase of short-term holders (STH) in this cycle. Key indicators show that typical cyclical bottom characteristics are forming: Three major panic signals appear simultaneously:

STH-SOPR dropped to 0.97: short-term holders are selling at a loss, and this indicator has been below the critical value of 1.0 for several weeks, forming a capitulation zone, which historically only appears at major turning points. STH-MVRV is far below 1.0: nearly all recent buyers are in a state of loss, and profitability is in the historically weakest range. 65,200 BTC loss transferred to the exchange: Panic not only remains on the books but is converted into actual loss sales.

Historical patterns show that when STH losses reach extreme levels, SOPR remains below 1.0, MVRV shows significant pressure, and exchange inflows are driven by panic rather than fundamentals, it typically marks the later stage of a correction. However, this does not guarantee an immediate rebound, but the flushing out of weak hands has been deeply underway, and historically, this process often indicates that the quantitative conditions for a cyclical recovery are aligning.