Standard Chartered Bank predicts a Bitcoin year-end rebound target of $150,000, with complex market signals.

In November 2025, Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out in a report to clients that the pullback of Bitcoin, which recently fell below the psychological barrier of $90,000, may have ended, and a rebound is expected by the end of the year. This optimistic prediction is based on multiple on-chain indicators having reached absolute lows, including the mNAV present value of Strategy having dropped to 1.0.

However, the market is showing conflicting signals at the same time — the SuperTrend indicator on the weekly chart has shifted to a sell mode for the first time since 2014, and historically, this signal has averaged a 61% fall, suggesting that recent volatility could persist. This tug-of-war between bullish expectations from institutions and a historical correction mode reflects the current state of the market.

Bitcoin on-chain metrics and technical signal analysis

The Bitcoin market is currently exhibiting a rare phenomenon of indicator divergence, posing challenges for investors in determining market direction. On one hand, on-chain analyst Ali pointed out that the realized loss margin for Bitcoin is currently -16%, below the historically rebound-related threshold of -12%. This data usually indicates that the market may be approaching a local bottom. On the other hand, the SuperTrend indicator, which has accurately marked major trend changes since 2014, recently switched to a sell mode on the weekly chart, and this technical signal cannot be ignored.

Historical data shows that past SuperTrend sell signals have averaged a 61% fall, and applying this average to the current market structure could indicate that prices may move towards $40,000. This contradictory signal precisely reflects the essence of the current market — while traditional financial institutions increasingly view the long-term prospects of digital assets positively, technical indicators still show significant short-term risks. Investors need to navigate carefully in such a contradictory environment, paying attention to long-term fundamentals while also guarding against short-term volatility risks.

Bitcoin Macroeconomic Liquidity Environment and Opportunity Cost

Despite an increase of $7 trillion in the global M2 money supply since the end of 2024, Bitcoin has failed to fully capitalize on this wave of liquidity. EndGame Macro analysis points out that although the global liquidity pool remains at historically high levels, much of the capital is being absorbed by government debt issuance and short-term instruments offering 4-5% yields. This situation effectively creates a “tax” on liquidity, raising the opportunity cost of speculative assets.

In an environment where risk alternatives provide tangible returns, speculative assets like Bitcoin face higher opportunity costs. This dynamic leads to choppy trading, where a sharp rebound occurs as clusters of short positions accumulate, while macro concerns trigger sudden falls. This reflects a more cautious investor environment, where market participants are more inclined to make large-scale deployments only after clear trends have formed, rather than aggressively building positions amid uncertainty.

Comparison of bullish and bearish signals in the Bitcoin market

Bullish signal: realized loss margin -16% (below -12% threshold), Strategy mNAV reaches 1.0

Bearish signal: SuperTrend weekly sell signal, historical average fall of 61%

Macroeconomic background: Global liquidity increased by $7 trillion, opportunity cost 4-5%

Price target: Standard Chartered is optimistic about a year-end rebound, technical analysis suggests a possible dip to $40,000.

Discrepancy Between Institutional Views and Market Expectations

Standard Chartered's year-end rebound forecast is based on the assumption that the selling momentum has exhausted, but potential risks still exist, including possible further corrections or market volatility triggered by policies. Bullish commentators believe that the current price of Bitcoin reflects an undervaluation, suggesting that cryptocurrencies could reach $150,000 in the context of continued monetary expansion. Meanwhile, skeptics point out that the correlation between liquidity and Bitcoin prices is no longer direct, highlighting competitive market forces and regulatory pressures driving a shift towards safer assets.

Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, put forward an interesting point: if the price of Bitcoin can reach a new historical high this year, it will prove that the four-year cycle theory is no longer valid. This perspective challenges the inherent cyclical narrative of the Bitcoin market, suggesting that in a new environment with increased institutional adoption and clearer regulations, historical patterns may no longer apply. This fundamental narrative struggle is shaping market expectations and also explains why both bulls and bears can find justification for their positions at the current price levels.

Bitcoin Investor Strategies and Risk Management

In the current market environment, traders and investors should prepare for ongoing volatility, as leveraged position liquidations and macro position adjustments continue. On-chain indicators, including realized loss margins and SuperTrend signals, may still be key indicators for entry and exit points. Risk management should be a top priority, especially in cases where indicators send conflicting signals.

From the perspective of asset allocation, investors may consider a staggered entry strategy rather than a one-time investment, which can allow them to benefit from potential rebounds while controlling downside risks. At the same time, it is crucial to pay attention to the changes in the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional assets—if Bitcoin can re-establish its status as an independent asset class, it will play a greater role in portfolio diversification. The positions in the options market also provide valuable information, with a surge in demand for downside protection at the $85,000 and $80,000 levels, reflecting the concerns of professional traders.

Bitcoin Market Depth and Liquidity Conditions

The market crash in October cleared approximately $19 billion in leveraged positions, causing a lasting impact on market liquidity. Data shows that the trading volume within 1% of the Bitcoin mid-price has significantly shrunk since the crash on October 10, with market makers becoming more cautious in providing liquidity. This decline in liquidity makes the market more susceptible to large fluctuations, as the impact of large orders on prices becomes more pronounced.

The deterioration of market depth not only affects short-term price discovery but may also delay the entry of institutional funds. Large investors typically prefer markets with ample liquidity to ensure they can establish and liquidate positions without impacting prices. If the current liquidity situation persists, it could limit the extent and speed of Bitcoin's rise, even if fundamental factors turn positive. Regulatory clarity and improvements in institutional infrastructure are key to restoring market depth, and these factors are more worthy of long-term investors' attention than short-term price fluctuations.

Historical Comparison and Cycle Positioning

By comparing the current market conditions with historical cycles, some interesting patterns can be found. From a temporal perspective, Bitcoin typically experiences a 12-18 month consolidation period after the previous cycle's peak, before starting a new upward trend. If this pattern holds, the current adjustment may lay the foundation for a potential rise in 2026.

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin needs to hold the key support area of $85,000-$90,000 to maintain a long-term bullish structure. If it loses this area, it may open the door to a drop to $70,000 or even lower levels. However, unlike previous cycles, this round of adjustment occurs after the approval of spot ETFs and significant improvements in institutional infrastructure, providing the market with unprecedented support. The participation of traditional financial institutions may change Bitcoin's market dynamics, requiring adjustments to the analysis framework that is purely based on historical patterns.

When analysts from Standard Chartered Bank were writing bullish reports in London, on-chain indicators were flashing warning signals — the Bitcoin market is caught in a typical identity crisis: should it follow the path of institutionalization and move steadily forward, or return to the nature of high-volatility digital assets? The answer may lie somewhere in between: slowly finding a new balance amidst the interplay of macro liquidity undercurrents and technological innovation. Once this balance is established, it will define the next chapter of digital assets.

FAQ

What is Standard Chartered's prediction for Bitcoin's price by the end of the year?

Standard Chartered Bank predicts that the recent sell-off of Bitcoin may have ended, with a rebound expected before the end of the year. This prediction is based on multiple on-chain indicators that have reached absolute lows.

What are the important technical signals in the current market?

Bitcoin's loss margin is -16%, below the historical rebound threshold, but the SuperTrend weekly sell signal suggests a potential further fall, and these conflicting signals make the market direction unclear.

How does the macro environment affect Bitcoin prices?

Although global liquidity has increased by $7 trillion, government bonds and other instruments offering a risk-free return of 4-5% have raised the opportunity cost of speculative assets like Bitcoin, leading to a diversion of funds.

How should investors respond to the current market conditions?

It is recommended to pay attention to changes in on-chain indicators, adopt a phased accumulation strategy, implement strict risk management, and prepare for continuous fluctuations, while closely monitoring liquidity conditions and policy signals.

Has the long-term narrative of Bitcoin changed?

The long-term narrative remains intact, but short-term challenges are present. Increased institutional participation and enhanced regulatory clarity may change Bitcoin's market dynamics, necessitating a reassessment of historical cycle patterns.